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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
422 FXUS65 KLKN 272035 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 135 PM PDT Thu Jun 27 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Dry condtions are expected for most, with the exception of White Pine county as isolated showers and thunderstorms remain possible this afternoon. These storms could produce gusty or erratic wind gusts. Dry condtions return tomorrow and Saturday. && .SHORT TERM...This afternoon through Friday night. Current satellite shows a Cumulus field developing across northeastern Nye, Southern Lander, and most of Eureka county. It is in this are that isolated showers and thunderstorms have the greatest chance of developing this afternoon. Surface level CAPE, mid-level moisture, and favorable lift support thunderstorms this afternoon, with DCAPE values around 1300 J/kg, strong and erratic outflow gusts will be possible with convective updrafts. Model soundings at Ely show a small cap at around 400 mb, that may inhibit any deep layer convection. Elsewhere, dry condtions can be expected with highs in the 80s. Areas across the I-80 corridor will see breezy winds with gusts of 25-30 mph at times. Its this combined with relative humidity percentages of 10-15% that will lead to elevated fire weather condtions this afternoon. Lows this evening should be in the 40s and 50s. Friday, quiet weather is expected under zonal flow. This will help keep afternoon breezes down. Highs are expected to be in the upper 80s, with low 90s in central Nevada. Nighttime lows are forecasted to drop into the 50s. .LONG TERM...Saturday through next Thursday Quieter conditions look to return for the weekend as both the upper trough and upper ridge shift back east leaving the Silver State under near zonal flow aloft and slowly rising heights as Summer returns to NE Nevada. However, a northern stream upper trough makes land fall over BC Canada Sunday. This trough as it slides east will try to push a front into N NV late Sunday evening into Monday morning. models currently show the front stalling just south of the I-80 corridor before lifting back north Monday night, which has been in line with prior runs. Models have shifted though toward a drier solution, limiting POPs to just the NV/ID/OR border region. This will give only far northern Nevada a 10% to 15% chance at thunderstorms. As it stands models favor a higher probability of dry than wet storms as current model trends still favor this solution. Will need to watch winds and RH for possible fire weather conditions, although system timing during the late evening into the over night Sunday may help mitigate some concerns. After Tuesday, upper flow trends more zonal as the upper trough departs eastward, allowing for another quiet spell with slowly rising heights through the July 4th Holiday. Temperatures will be quick to recover Friday and Saturday as highs reach back into the mid 80s to mid 90s. Depending on haw far south the front will make it Sunday night, highs Monday and Tuesday will be upper 70s to upper 80s across northern Nevada, while central NV remains in the mid 80s to mid 90s. Wednesday and Thursday highs return to the mid 80s to mid 90s area wide. Winds for the extended will be generally out of the west to WSW at 5 MPH to 15 MPH with the occasional gust up to 25 MPH through Sunday. Winds will pick up across the north Sunday evening and Monday as the front moves through, with W to WNW winds of 10 MPH to 25 MPH with gusts up to 35 MPH possible, with lighter winds returning again for the rest of the week. && .AVIATION...VFR conditions will be the primary flight conditions through Friday, as drier air filters in behind yesterdays frontal passage. Isolated Thunderstorms will be possible this evening for KELY as a surface boundary slowly works SE through the area, other terminals look to remain dry this evening. Primary hazards will be strong gusty outflow winds, lightning, and brief heavy rainfall. There is a chance of a brief drop to MVFR or to IFR conditions should a storm impact KELY directly. Out side of storms, winds will be slightly elevated this evening out of the W to WNW overnight at 15KT to 25KT with a few gusts up to 35KT. && .FIRE WEATHER...Isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon across zone 425 and perhaps eastern portions of 426. Chances remain low (< 15% chance) of storms in 426, so no weather was added to the grids. Elevated fire weather conditions are also expected this afternoon across the I-80 corridor effecting zones 424, 438, 469, 470 and northern portions of 427 as RH percentages range from 10-15% combined with afternoon winds that could gust between 25-30 mph. After today, weather quiets down with light winds and dry condtions Friday and Saturday. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ 91/98/98/91