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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Chicago, IL
Issued by NWS Chicago, IL
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265 FXUS63 KLOT 291950 AFDLOT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 250 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Potential for isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms to redevelop this afternoon, mainly south of the Kankakee River Valley, a few of which could be strong to possibly severe. - Dangerous swimming conditions with large waves expected late tonight through Sunday night at Lake Michigan beaches. - Multiple chances for showers & storms Tuesday through Friday, many dry hours between any bouts of rain && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 250 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Through Sunday night: A cold front continues to shift southeastward across my east central IL and northwestern IN counties this afternoon. The threat of isolated thunderstorms will continue with this front in my southeast through early evening (~7 pm). Conditions will then cool off tonight as breeze northwesterly winds usher in a much cooler and less humid airmass for the second half of the weekend. Expect temperatures to bottom out late tonight in the mid to upper 50s outside of the urban areas. While some lower clouds may move in off the lake early Sunday morning, conditions are expected to turn mostly sunny for the afternoon. This will set up a very good weather day for the region through the afternoon with seasonably cool inland temperatures into the low to mid 70s expected. Slightly cooler conditions can be expected near the lake. The only real weather related hazard for Sunday will be the gusty northerly winds and the associated large waves (4 to 8`) expected to develop tonight on Lake Michigan. These high waves will create dangerous (potentially life threatening) swimming conditions at area Lake Michigan beaches through Sunday night. KJB Monday through Saturday: July will start on an atypically comfortable note on Monday with highs in the 70s and dew points in the 40s to low 50s due to expansive high pressure over the Great Lakes. Onshore winds will keep lakeshore locations a bit cooler than inland. As the surface high pressure exits on Monday night, increasing cloud cover and warm air advection (WAA) will result in lows about 10 degrees warmer than those of Sunday night. Large scale forcing (a positively titled upper trough over the northern Plains) will interact with an MUCAPE plume across the upper MS Valley and points west to result in elevated convection developing Monday night. Any convection that outpaces the instability axis may push into far northwestern portions of the CWA in a weakening state toward dawn on Tuesday. Into Tuesday morning, the instability axis may make enough eastward progress for scattered showers and isolated to scattered thunderstorms to ooze southeast into areas north of I-80 in Illinois. The highest chance of thunderstorms is favored to be over roughly the northwest 1/3 or so of the CWA. Following the likely dissipation of any lingering Tuesday AM convection as capping increases, a warm front will lift north through Tuesday PM. This will result in a return to typical July warmth (mid-upper 80s away from IL north shore) and dew points back up into the 60s, along with breezy southerly winds gusting up to 25-30 mph. Any widely scattered afternoon showers or thunderstorms able to develop would probably be across the far northern CWA. The earlier mentioned upper trough will track eastward into Ontario by Wednesday afternoon, with its associated surface low likely to track eastward across southern Canada. Cold front trailing south from the low pressure is forecast to push southeastward across northern Illinois Tuesday night. The timing still doesn`t look favorable diurnally speaking for robust convection in our area, with the cold frontal boundary and showers/storms looking to arrive late Tuesday evening into the overnight. However, given respectable deep layer bulk shear and a stout low level jet, it`s possible scattered thunderstorms could persist well into the night despite the stronger synoptic forcing remaining well north the area. Tuesday night`s cold front will likely lay out east-west somewhere in the area on Wednesday, perhaps favoring near our southern CWA. If convective outflow and cold pool development augment the effective frontal position far enough south, current forecast PoPs up to the I-88 corridor or so will likely be too far north. Conceptually, the better chances of storms Wednesday will probably be across our southern CWA or even south of the area. Outside of the uncertain chances for any showers and thunderstorms, Wednesday will feature highs in the 85-90F range with afternoon dew points in the upper 60s to low- mid 70s (highest south). Another trough is progged to dig into the northern Plains Thursday afternoon before tracking east into the western Great Lakes Friday. This could pull the boundary back north with shower/storm chances increasing again Thursday into Friday. It remains too far out to get into specifics on timing the better chances for convection, but certainly can`t rule out storms posing some challenges for outdoor activities for the July 4th holiday. Even if part of the 4th is affected by rain/storms, hopefully a favorable window opens up for evening fireworks displays. The system cold front should sweep across the area Thursday night into Friday, potentially placing better chances of any PM thunderstorms primarily southeast of I-55. A drier and somewhat cooler air mass will then push into the area for the start of the first weekend of July. Castro/Izzi && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1214 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Broken MVFR CIGs have been persisting through the morning at all terminals. These CIGs have scattered out at KRFD and will do the same at KORD, KMDW, and KDPA over the next hour or so. They may hang on just a smidge longer at KGYY, but shouldn`t persist to far into the afternoon. Winds have turned westerly and will continue to veer to northwesterly this afternoon while also becoming gusty due to the tightening pressure gradient. The gusty winds will continue through the overnight hours and through the majority of the day tomorrow, turning northerly. Tomorrow some low clouds over the lake will push slightly inland likely bringing MVFR CIGs back to KGYY. These low CIGs should stay confined along the lakeshore, keeping the other four terminals in VFR conditions. However, there is a chance that these clouds may drift a little further inland, which would bring KORD, KMDW, and KDPA into MVFR conditions as well. Carothers && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...Beach Hazards Statement from midnight CDT tonight through late Sunday night for ILZ006-ILZ103-ILZ104. IN...Beach Hazards Statement from midnight CDT tonight through late Sunday night for INZ001-INZ002. LM...Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 4 AM CDT Monday for the IL and IN nearshore waters. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/chicago