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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
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354 FXUS64 KMAF 281121 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 621 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday afternoon) Issued at 204 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 While the upper ridge overhead is being flattened some by a trough cruising through the northern Rockies, this nudges the center of the ridge (and low-level thermal ridge) more over our area. This and somewhat less afternoon cumulus should allow temperatures to sneak a few degrees hotter than what we saw yesterday. With this, will maintain the current Heat Advisory in effect for this afternoon across the western Low Rolling Plains, portions of the Trans Pecos, Big Bend, and western high terrain. With the ridge center displaced a bit further east on Saturday, the low level thermal ridge falls a few degrees Celsius and high temperatures return to similar values from what was seen yesterday, albeit still quite hot. Under the mild subsidence from the ridge, the only storm chances remain confined to the western high terrain and the higher elevations of southeastern New Mexico both this afternoon and Saturday afternoon. -Munyan && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 204 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 If you liked the weather over the next couple of days, then you`re in luck because little changes during the long term period. The doldrums of Summer have kicked into high gear as a largely stagnant weather pattern remains in place across much of the southern CONUS. The mid-level ridge remains over the southern Great Plains through the weekend before it slides a bit further east towards the ArkLaTex region early next week. With that said, a trough passes north of the region late this weekend and early next week knocking temperatures down a few degrees before they rebound once again through the remainder of next week. Temperatures each afternoon remain in the mid 90s to mid 100s for the majority each afternoon. Temperatures each night provide little relief as the low-level jet maintains mixing and keeps warm temperatures in place. Most locations struggle to cool into the 70s. Rain chances look slim for all of the lower elevations with large scale subsidence under the mid-level ridge. The higher elevations maintain an isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorm chance most afternoons with the aid of upslope moist flow and orographic ascent. Without a pattern shift this is likely what can be expected for the foreseeable future and beyond. -Chehak && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 620 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 VFR conditions with southeast winds for all terminals through the period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 105 78 101 76 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 103 78 102 75 / 20 20 20 10 Dryden 101 76 98 75 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 104 76 99 74 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 94 75 94 70 / 30 30 20 10 Hobbs 102 75 100 73 / 10 10 10 10 Marfa 98 67 98 65 / 20 20 20 10 Midland Intl Airport 103 77 99 75 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 103 77 99 75 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 107 80 103 78 / 0 0 0 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory from 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ this afternoon to 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for Borden-Central Brewster County-Chinati Mountains-Chisos Basin-Crane-Davis Mountains- Davis Mountains Foothills-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-Howard-Lower Brewster County-Marfa Plateau-Mitchell-Pecos-Scurry-Winkler. NM...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County. && $$ SHORT TERM...16 LONG TERM....91 AVIATION...91