Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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Issued by NWS
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355 ACUS11 KWNS 292210 SWOMCD SPC MCD 292210 INZ000-MIZ000-ILZ000-292345- Mesoscale Discussion 1480 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0510 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Areas affected...Parts of eastern IL and IN Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 292210Z - 292345Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...An isolated severe wind/hail threat may develop and remain quasi-stationary across parts of Indiana and eastern Illinois. With an expected localized nature to the severe threat and low confidence in sustaining a longer-duration risk, severe thunderstorm watch issuance appears unlikely but trends will be monitored. DISCUSSION...In the wake of a small bowing cluster over southeast IN, residual outflow to its west/north converging with a leading cold front have supported isolated thunderstorm development across parts of IN into east-central/southeast IL. Much of central IN is void of cu in the wake of this cluster, suggesting that storms that can be sustained to the west and north will struggle to spread east. Deep-layer shear is stronger across northern IN, with MLCAPE greater back into IL, which will aid in an isolated severe hail/wind threat. However, low-level convergence along this leading boundary should wane for a time before a reinforcing cold front, currently over northern IL, shifts southeast later this evening. ..Grams/Smith.. 06/29/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LMK...IWX...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX... LAT...LON 39308596 38908603 38568702 38568818 38778893 39358889 39738891 40488769 41318640 41638586 41768547 41608511 41258513 40838595 40258698 39928740 39308596