Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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099 ACUS11 KWNS 241839 SWOMCD SPC MCD 241839 INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-242045- Mesoscale Discussion 0932 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0139 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024 Areas affected...south-central and east-central IL...west-central IN Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 241839Z - 242045Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Episodic strong to occasionally severe multicells will potentially be capable of localized wind damage (50-65 mph) and large hail (1.0 to 1.5 inches in diameter). DISCUSSION...A seasonably moist/moderate to strongly unstable airmass (1500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE) has developed across south-central IL extending eastward into west-central IN early this afternoon. The southern periphery of stronger mid-level westerlies (30-40 kt at 500 mb) is located across the mid MS Valley into the Wabash Valley. Weaker flow is noted in the upper levels (20-30 kt) in the 300-200mb layer. Precipitation seeding and additional outflow/merger processes will promote further storm/cold pool aggregation and likely a waning risk for severe where convective overturning has occurred. In areas void of storms currently, some risk for strong/localized severe may move into those areas over the next few hours. Large hail (1 to 1.5 inches in diameter) and strong to locally severe gusts (50-65 mph) will be possible with the stronger cores and outflow surges. ..Smith/Guyer.. 05/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...LSX... LAT...LON 38638992 39029031 39509050 39789011 39858946 39868856 40208807 40708772 40908739 41098698 41058665 40888646 40418645 39528709 38958787 38628911 38638992