Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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Issued by NWS
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264 ACUS11 KWNS 241657 SWOMCD SPC MCD 241656 ARZ000-MSZ000-241800- Mesoscale Discussion 0928 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1156 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024 Areas affected...portions of central and northern Arkansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 241656Z - 241800Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Some severe hail or wind may accompany the stronger storms that may try to become established over central and northern AR this afternoon. A WW issuance is possible. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have been percolating in intensity across west-central AR over the past couple of hours, with at least one report of 0.75 inch hail received. While earlier storms had overturned the airmass, ample insolation and low-level warm-air advection is supporting rapid modification of the boundary layer. RAP forecast soundings and mesoanalysis show 7-8 C/km mid-level lapse rates quickly ushering into AR from the west, which will further boost instability. Surface temperatures in the low 80s amid 70+ F dewpoints should yield over 2000 J/kg MLCAPE amid 40-50 kts of effective bulk shear (characterized by elongated hodographs with modest low-level curvature). Multicells and perhaps a few supercell structures are possible this afternoon, with severe hail and wind gusts the main threats, though a tornado cannot be completely ruled out. A WW issuance may be needed pending convective trends. ..Squitieri/Guyer.. 05/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...TSA... LAT...LON 35539370 35889322 36129286 36099216 35869152 35189117 34279096 33869112 33519150 33469181 33789281 34369369 34839408 34979410 35539370