811
ACUS11 KWNS 211825
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211825
WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-212030-

Mesoscale Discussion 1356
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0125 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

Areas affected...parts of the Mid-MO to Upper MS Valley

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 211825Z - 212030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...A generally isolated severe threat should develop into
late afternoon with a mix of wind/hail, along with a couple
tornadoes possible. Uncertainty exists with the overall spatial
extent of the severe threat with slow-moving storms expected.

DISCUSSION...Convection is slowly increasing along a
quasi-stationary/slow-moving warm front that arcs from northeast NE
into far southeast MN and southwest WI. The eastern portion of this
development appears to be primarily driven by modest low-level warm
theta-e advection within an uncapped, moderately buoyant air mass.
Convection farther west over the Mid-MO Valley is also being aided
by a minor MCV in southeast SD. Area VWPs still indicate relatively
stronger mid/upper flow is likely displaced along and to the cool
side of the front, with weak flow into the warm-moist sector. A
confined corridor of slow-moving, transient supercells and multicell
clusters should develop near and just south of the front. Overall
severe coverage will probably remain sporadic with mainly a
lower-end wind/hail threat. Confidence is somewhat higher in
intensification, including the potential for a couple tornadoes, in
association with the MCV over the Mid-MO Valley.

..Grams/Hart.. 06/21/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MKX...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...LBF...

LAT...LON   44379225 43909048 43159028 42659136 42609154 42749384
            42489615 42449837 42599907 43169904 43359876 43749576
            44379225