968
FXUS64 KMEG 172342 AAA
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Memphis TN
642 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 340 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

Shower and thunderstorm coverage will be much less on Tuesday as
upper level high pressure builds back west and into the Mid-South.
Hot and dry conditions will persist Wednesday through Sunday
as strong upper level high pressure remains over the region. High
temperatures will soar back into the mid to upper 90s each day.
Rain chances look to return early next week as high pressure
weakens over the Lower Mississippi Valley.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Sunday)
Issued at 340 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

A tropical-like day across the Mid-South at this hour. The latest
KNQA radar sweep reveals scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms along and west of the Mississippi River. The latest
SPC mesoanalysis reveals near record high PWAT values of 2.2
inches along the Mississippi River. Aloft, GOES-East Water Vapor
Imagery reveals a weak shortwave rotating clockwise around the
western periphery of the upper level ridge. Several strong storms
have occurred this morning and afternoon due to the combination
of moderate instability around 2000 J/kg of MLCAPE and up to 25
knots of bulk shear. Convective activity may hold on for several
hours after sunset as the main shortwave lifts out of the region.
A few additional strong storms are possible through sunset and an
instance or two of minor flooding is also possible.

Convective coverage will be much less on Tuesday, as the main
upper level ridge begins to retrograde back to the west. Showers
and thunderstorms will be mainly confined to areas along and north
of I-40 tomorrow morning and afternoon. Thereafter, the ridge of
high pressure will strengthen and become nearly centered over the
Lower Mississippi Valley. Temperatures will soar back into the
mid to upper 90s Wednesday through Saturday. With lower humidity
in place, heat indices should remain 100F or below.

Upper level high pressure looks to finally weaken over the region
late in the weekend. Showers and thunderstorms will likely return
as early as Sunday as weak troughing builds into the Lower
Mississippi Valley. Uncertainty amplifies early next week as
synoptic models are beginning to resolve a potential tropical
system in the western Gulf of Mexico.

AC3

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 642 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

Primary short term concern in the scattered TSRA over northwest
MS, lifting north. Most recent runs of the HRRR depict the TS
potential falling off between 01Z and 02Z, with isolated -SHRA
continuing thereafter. This appears reasonable, given the loss of
daytime heating and weak deep layer shear. MEM surface winds will
take a while to recover from the considerable amount of convective
outflow, but should favor the SSE direction by late evening.

Quieter weather expected Tuesday. 12Z HREF Grand Ensemble depicts
TS potential well below 10 percent Tuesday afternoon.

PWB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...AC3
AVIATION...PWB