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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
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599 FXUS64 KMEG 272050 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 350 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 ...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 345 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Heat and humidity will begin to increase across portions of northwest Mississippi on Friday and across much of the Mid-South on Saturday as heat index values rise to between 100 to 105 degrees, potentially higher in some locations. A cold front will bring the best potential for showers and thunderstorms to the Mid-South late Saturday night into Sunday. Very hot temperatures are expected to return towards latter half of next week along with afternoon and early evening showers and thunderstorms. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Wednesday) Issued at 345 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 GOES-16 Water Vapor satellite trends this afternoon show a longwave trough axis from New England back through portions of the Southeast U.S. A quasi-stationary boundary is nearly parallel to mid-level flow with a surface low located over central Alabama this afternoon. Light northeasterly flow is present across the Mid-South this afternoon with dewpoints ranging from the middle 60s to lower 70s on the north side of the surface boundary. Temperatures as of 3 PM CDT are in the 80s at most locations. Isolated to scattered rain showers and possibly a thunderstorm are expected to diminish in coverage tonight with the loss of daytime heating. Lows tonight will range from the upper 60s to lower 70s. Temperatures dewpoints will begin to increase on Friday as the aforementioned surface boundary begins to return north as a warm front. Afternoon temperatures are expected to warm into the lower 90s at many locations with heat index values potentially ranging from 100-105 degrees. NBM dewpoints appear to be running a bit higher than operational model guidance with about a 3-5 degree spread from the mean to 90th percentile. Dewpoints were trended slightly lower. There is a potential for a small Heat Advisory across portions of northwest Mississippi Friday afternoon. However, uncertainty with the rapid increase dewpoints and the typical high dewpoint biases with the CKM and UTA observations lean towards lower confidence in headlines at this moment. Confidence is higher with the potential for heat headlines on Saturday with a few locations that might see heat warning criteria if these higher dewpoints are actually realized. This will be re-evaluated with the 00Z model data that will arrive later tonight. Short-term model trends indicate another weak cold front embedded within weak northwest flow aloft will drop into the Lower Mississippi Valley late Saturday night into Sunday. As with yesterday`s system, the better forcing will remain displaced northeast over the Ohio Valley with overall shear remaining weak at best around 20 kts and mid-level lapse rates remaining relatively weak. Thus, strong to severe thunderstorm potential remains on the low end at this time. Long-range operational and ensemble model trends indicate building heights across the region next week. This will result in temperatures returning to the middle to upper 90s especially towards the 4th of July and the potential for diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms for mid to late next week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1230 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 While VFR conditions are expected to prevail at all sites through the TAF period, MVFR CIGS may persist for a little while longer at MEM and TUP this afternoon. Patchy fog looks to reduce visibilities at TUP overnight. Gusty northeast winds will eventually slacken later this evening. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...CJC AVIATION...JPR