Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
924 FXUS62 KMFL 191427 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 1027 AM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 1013 AM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Sounding date from the 12Z MFL launch and ACARS flights show increasing moisture at the lower levels this morning, topped by a deep layer of dry air aloft. This influx of moisture near the surface has capitalized on frictional convergence near the East Coast and the passage of a subtle upper level disturbance resulting in the development of isolated showers across the region early this morning. Coverage may become more scattered in nature later today as the dominant easterlies quickly push the East coast sea breeze further inland. As such, kept 40-50% PoPs progressing from the interior towards the Gulf coast this afternoon. Temperatures across the East Coast will benefit from the breezy easterly flow, with highs topping off in the upper 80s. Interior and southwest FL will see further warming throughout the day, with highs in the low 90s. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 400 AM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Models begin the short term with mid level ridging centered over the SE CONUS and the northern portions of the peninsula, with a generally easterly flow across SoFlo today. This will keep bringing moderate easterlies, and becoming gusty at times along the east coast. Meanwhile, latest NHC forecast continues to highlight low chances of tropical development about a weak trough approaching the SE US coast. But regardless of the final outcome of this feature, it will begin to at least inject deeper moisture across the region, with POPs increasing into the 50-60 percent range this afternoon over SoFlo. This will result in afternoon scattered to numerous showers and a few thunderstorms favoring interior and west coast areas as the dominant easterlies quickly push the Atlantic coast sea breeze further inland. A similar weather pattern continues on Thursday but with enhanced moisture advection resulting in slightly higher POPs, and more widespread across the area. The situation will continue to be closely monitored as any changes in the development of the aforementioned weak trough could result in changes to the forecast outlook. The modest increase in cloud cover today and tomorrow will keep afternoon max temps one or two degrees cooler than the past few days. Expect upper 80 to around 90 over the Atlantic side of SoFlo, and in the low 90s over interior and west coast locations. Cooler values could happen in locations that the heaviest downpours occur during the normal peak heating hours. Heat index values should remain in the upper 90s to low 100s, but locally higher values are possible. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 400 AM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024 High pressure, and it`s partnering mid-level ridging, will continue to dominate the eastern CONUS seaboard as we move into the long term. This feature will build westward into the central United States as we head into the weekend. As a result, the strong easterly flow will continue across South Florida for the end of the week and through the weekend. With potential for relatively moderate PWATs (~1.5-1.7") and instability, there will be less convective coverage as the slightly drier air persists, but there will be potential for scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms on Friday. Heading into the weekend, the ensembles indicate an increase in moisture with modeled PWATs approaching 2.0"-2.2" and more activity is expected. With the easterly flow and the high to our north, we will remain in the climatological pattern with weaker showers impacting the east coast areas in the morning followed by more rainfall affecting the rest of South Florida in the latter half of the day. While the models have backed off on moisture potential, there is a chance for light to moderate showers (40-60%) and possible brief downpours and lightning associated with any thunderstorms across the region. Best chance for rainfall accumulation will be in the afternoon across the interior and SW FL. Early next week, an upper level low will come barreling across the Great Lakes region as the high pressure over the eastern CONUS breaks down and nudged back eastward. This will lead to the development of a more S/SE flow across the area for the start of the week as another frontal boundary approaches the SE CONUS. Models are hinting at another moisture surge with the return of southerly flow, but this is too far out for confidence in impact just yet. With the persistent easterly flow, temperatures will be seasonal and quite consistent through the weekend and into the new week. High temperatures will be in the upper 80s to low 90s regionwide. Overnight lows will drop into the mid to upper 70s. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 742 AM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Mostly VFR conditions through the period as gusty easterly flow prevails. Stray SHRA/TSRA could result in brief periods of MVFR conditions along East Coast terminals this morning and early afternoon; did not include TEMPOs in this forecast cycle due to low confidence of timing and duration. SHRA/TSRA moves inland after 20Z- with the potential for sub-VFR conditions shifting westward towards KAPF. && .MARINE... Issued at 400 AM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Breezy and gusty easterly winds continue today, along with seas up to 7 feet over the Atlantic waters, and up to 5 feet over the Gulf. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for all marine waters through this morning, then continuing for the Atlantic waters until at least Thursday morning. A slight decrease in the E-SE winds will lead to lower seas for the end the week. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will periodically affect the local waters, becoming more numerous through the remainder of the work week. && .BEACHES... Issued at 400 AM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Robust easterly winds will keep a high risk of rip currents across all the Atlantic beaches during the rest of the work week. Surf will remain elevated, possibly in the 3-4 feet range over the Palm Beach and Broward county beaches today. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 87 79 89 80 / 50 30 40 30 West Kendall 88 77 90 78 / 50 30 40 30 Opa-Locka 88 78 90 79 / 50 30 40 30 Homestead 87 78 89 79 / 50 30 30 40 Fort Lauderdale 86 79 87 80 / 50 30 40 40 N Ft Lauderdale 88 79 87 79 / 40 30 50 30 Pembroke Pines 89 79 91 80 / 50 30 30 30 West Palm Beach 87 77 87 78 / 50 30 40 30 Boca Raton 87 78 87 79 / 40 30 40 30 Naples 92 76 92 77 / 50 10 40 30 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through Thursday evening for FLZ168-172- 173. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ650-651-670- 671. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for GMZ656- 657-676. && $$ SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM....JS AVIATION...ATV