387
FXUS62 KMFL 300620
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
220 AM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 219 AM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024

An unsettled pattern to close out the weekend as a mid-level
disturbance moves across the southern peninsula of Florida today
into Monday. Abundant tropical moisture will enable more coverage of
convective activity during today into tonight compared to previous
days. The additional cloud cover will help keep temperatures a few
degrees cooler today with many areas only reaching the upper 80s
though some pockets of around 90 are possible, mainly in Southwest
Florida. Accordingly, heat index values should remain below Heat
Advisory thresholds today across South Florida. Hydration and
cooling breaks are still a good idea, particularly for anyone
spending long periods of time outdoors today. Repeated rounds of
showers and storms could bring a localized flooding threat with a
focus possible over Southwest Florida this afternoon. Strong wind
gusts and frequent to excessive lightning are also concerns on this
Sunday.

A lull in convection is possible tonight but coastal activity could
linger over the local waters through the night which could keep the
flood threat in play for any areas that see repeated rounds of
rainfall earlier in the day. Monday will again be warm and unsettled
but the winds becoming more south-southeasterly will help focus
afternoon convection from just inland of the Atlantic into Southwest
Florida with a focus along the State Road 80 corridor/Lake
Okeechobee possible by late afternoon/early evening on Monday. Upper
80s to lower 90s for high temperatures continues though heat index
values climb back above 100 across most of the area.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 219 AM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024

A trough over the eastern United States will help keep an unsettled
pattern over much of Florida to kick off the work week and that will
linger into mid-week before the trough deamplifies as it slides east
into the Atlantic. Abundant tropical moisture will remain over the
region as large-scale high pressure builds in over Florida on the
surface and the southeastern United States aloft. Beryl is forecast
to remain south of the area thanks to this high pressure pattern as
it moves westerly to west-northwesterly this week. This will mean
that diurnally-driven sea breeze showers and thunderstorms will be
the main story through the week along with continued warmth. Heat
index values will quietly creep back up through the week with the
potential for Heat Advisories returning. Easterly flow will favor
morning convection around the Atlantic moving inland and focused
over the interior and Southwest Florida by the afternoon and early
evening hours each day.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 125 AM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024

Mostly VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF
cycles. Winds light/vrb overnight BCMG ESE around 5-10 kt.
SHRA/TSRA becomes SCT/NMRS at times today, particularly near/over
APF. Short-fused TEMPOs may be needed. Gulf sea-breeze also may
cause wind shift at APF around 16-18Z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 219 AM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024

A gentle to moderate easterly wind flow will remain in place across
the local waters through the weekend. This flow may turn more
southeasterly heading into the middle portion of the week. Seas
across the Atlantic and Gulf waters will remain at 2 feet or less
through early this week. Scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms will develop over the local waters during this time
frame. Winds and waves could be locally higher in and around showers
and thunderstorms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            88  78  89  79 /  80  50  70  50
West Kendall     88  75  90  77 /  80  50  70  40
Opa-Locka        89  77  90  78 /  80  50  70  50
Homestead        88  77  88  79 /  80  60  70  50
Fort Lauderdale  87  77  88  80 /  80  50  70  50
N Ft Lauderdale  88  78  89  80 /  80  50  70  50
Pembroke Pines   90  77  91  79 /  80  50  70  50
West Palm Beach  89  77  90  79 /  80  40  70  40
Boca Raton       89  77  90  80 /  80  50  70  50
Naples           90  76  90  78 /  80  50  70  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RAG
LONG TERM....RAG
AVIATION...SRB