797
FXUS66 KMFR 170441
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
941 PM PDT Sun Jun 16 2024

...New Aviation Section...


.AVIATION (06Z TAFs)...

VFR conditions are expected throughout the valid TAF cycle. With
the upper system departing, we are expecting clouds to slowly
decrease in coverage through this cycle with increasing sunshine
throughout the day tomorrow. Also, expecting slightly breezy
afternoon wind speeds tomorrow.

-Guerrero

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 248 PM PDT Sun Jun 16 2024/

DISCUSSION...An upper low off the PacNW coast will continue to
move east/southeast across the area...bringing below normal
temperatures...lots of clouds...and some rain. A band of rain
extending from Curry county east into central and northern
Klamath county is moving slowly southeast. We even experienced a
few drops stepping outside of the office in Medford during the
last hour. Expect any precipitation activity to slowly subside
into Monday morning. The best chance for rain into tomorrow
morning will be in Lake county and lingering over the Cascades.

Otherwise...after the next 12 to 16 hours...dry weather is in
store for next 7 days.

Temperatures today and tomorrow will generally be around 10
degrees below normal...before high pressure takes hold of the area
early next week into at least the end of the work week. By
Tuesday...temperatures will be near normal...rapidly warming to 10
to 15 degrees above normal by the middle to end of the work week
next week. There is little disagreement in the clusters/ensembles
through next weekend in the fact that we will be dry and warm.
There are some differences in the extended clusters as far as the
positioning of an upper low in the Gulf of Alaska toward the end
of next weekend...with about a 30% to 40% chance of cooler
temperatures late next weekend into the following week.

According to the Climate Prediction Center`s 8 to 14 day
outlook...Valid June 24th through June 30th...there is about a 30
to 50% chance of below normal temperatures. It seems as though
summer is having a hard time establishing its grip on the
area...and I`m OK with that!

-Riley

AVIATION (00Z TAFs)...

Showers are expected to subside through the next several hours as
the upper level low continues to move east. This eastward
advancement will allow for subsidence aloft and clouds to clear
out overnight with VFR conditions across the region. While some
pockets of clouds may be possible (including some mountain
obstructions), confidence is much higher for VFR conditions
across the terminals through this period.

-Guerrero

MARINE...Updated 200 PM Sunday, June 16, 2024...A weak cold front
is moving through the waters this afternoon, and north winds will
strengthen through the evening and overnight as the front moves
inland and high pressure builds in from the northwest. Winds and
seas will build to small craft advisory levels south of Cape Blanco
this evening and remain hazardous through at least Wednesday
evening. As a result, the small craft advisory for the southern
waters has been extended through that time.

This north wind pattern remains in place from Wednesday night
onward, but the tendency is for winds and seas to decrease a little.
Confidence in this happening is not high, so it would not be
surprising if we ended up extending the small craft advisory further
in time. Will wait for confidence to increase before making that
decision.

-Wright

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Freeze Warning until 8 AM PDT Monday for ORZ029>031.

CA...Freeze Warning until 8 AM PDT Monday for CAZ084-085.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT
     Wednesday for PZZ356-376.

&&

$$