023
FXUS62 KMHX 201925
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
325 PM EDT Fri Sep 20 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will ridge southwards across the Carolinas and
will continue to wedge itself southwards across the Mid-Atlantic
through this weekend allowing for benign conditions across the
area. Next potential frontal system doesn`t near ENC until at
least mid next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 320 PM Fri...Diurnal cumulus field has overspread ENC
this afternoon mainly along and west of the Pamlico sound with
even some light showers noted across the Coastal Plain and just
west of the area. Given continued signal for a light shower or
two across the Coastal Plain have elected to introduce an Iso
chance for precip across our far western Counties. Will note
while there is a low chance to see a stray shower this afternoon
there is a better chance no one sees any shower activity prior
to sunset. Otherwise light N`rly winds and temps in the mid 70s
to low 80s has made for a rather comfortable end of the
workweek.

As we get into tonight high pressure continues to ridge southwards
over the Carolinas ending any precip threat we had this afternoon as
dry air continues to work its way S`wards over ENC tonight.
Expecting good radiational cooling with mostly clear skies and light
winds which should promote the development of patchy fog and/or low
clouds again after midnight. One caveat to the fog threat is if
enough low cloud cover overspreads ENC tonight the patchy fog threat
would be lower than currently indicated. Either way, given the
current forecast expecting patchy fog to start developing after
midnight from west to east. Lows inland will be in the low to mid
60s and upper 60s coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
As of 320 PM Fri... Rather benign day as high pressure over the
Eastern Seaboard moves little keeping the area dry and warm.
Any leftover patchy fog quickly dissipates after sunrise. Still
expect a diurnal Cu field to develop in the late morning to
early afternoon but don`t expect any precip through the day.
Highs get into the upper 70s to mid 80s resulting in a rather
great start to the weekend. One thing to note is the King Tide
will peak this weekend resulting in a threat for some minor
coastal flooding on Sat around times of high tide (SEE COASTAL
FLOOD SECTION for more details).

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 330 AM Friday...Ridging starts building in through the
weekend as a low spins up offshore to our northeast, gradually
shifting further offshore to our east. Slight chances of rain
Sunday-Sunday night (20%) but otherwise a dry forecast through
Tuesday. Seasonable temps through the period and generally dry
through Tuesday evening. Rain chances increase mid to late week
as ridging weakens and a low treks across the Ohio Valley and
Great Lakes region.

The Weekend:
Expanded the slight chance of showers (and thunderstorms during
peak heating) Sunday with synoptic models all keying in on 2
waves of potential rainfall.

First Sunday morning a weak front and associated isentropic lift
from a low developing near the Great Lakes moves through the
region. Ridging from a high to our E/SE will help shelter the
southern half of the CWA from rainfall, but have expanded the
slight chance PoP mentions for the northern half where ridging
is a bit weaker. This front fizzles out as it crosses our CWA.

The second wave looks to be Sunday afternoon/evening as a
boundary ahead of ridging building in from the north could
initiate showers over ENC. Introduced Schc PoPs with this
update, opting to not go higher as we have a lack of upper level
support.

Monday-Thursday:
Low offshore could produce high swell impacting OBX beaches
Monday-Tuesday. See TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING section for more
information.

Ridging and dry conditions continue through Tuesday evening.
Tuesday night ridging starts to weaken over ENC as a low
approaches from the midwest, pushing the high further northeast.
While a cold front from this low will be pushing through the
ohio and mississippi valley Tuesday, there is uncertainty on
when the front will reach us. If the ridge takes longer to move
out of here, the front could reach us as soon as Wednesday
morning. There is also a chance that the front doesn`t reach us
at all if ridge remains stubborn. Kept PoPs at Schc for now
Wednesday with so much uncertainty with the front. High
offshore helps channel moisture towards ENC mid to late week,
increasing PoPs to Chc/Schc Wednesday night onwards as we enter
a wetter pattern.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Saturday morning/...
As of 115 PM Fri...VFR conditions forecast across ENC this
afternoon as diurnal Cu field continues to lift closer to 4-6
kft as ENC mixes out. Expect to start off the evening under
clearing skies as diurnal Cu field dissipates. As we get later
into tonight and after midnight, ample low level moisture
remains in place, and with light winds, and clearing skies,
guidance continues to suggest there will be a threat for low
stratus and at least patchy fog across the area. This threat is
mainly along and west of Hwy 17. Kept patchy fog in the forecast
and TAFs tonight mainly from 07/08Z to 13Z and left a SCT deck
of low stratus in the forecast. Will note some of the guidance
is giving a low end chance that the low stratus will inhibit fog
formation but as of this update the possibility seems too low
to discount fog threat. After about 13Z any leftover patchy fog
and low stratus quickly dissipate and VFR conditions are
forecast for Sat. WInds will remain light generally coming from
a N-NE direction.

LONG TERM /Saturday afternoon through Wednesday/...
As of 345 AM Friday...Pred VFR conditions expected through the
long term

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /Through Saturday/...
As of 330 PM Fri... No changes in the forecast as SCA`s will
remain in effect for the waters north of Ocracoke Inlet through
this weekend and into early next week as swell from a low
pressure system in the northwest-Atlantic moves into the
northern and central waters today and tonight. N to NE winds at
5-15 kt will persist through the period as high pressure builds
over the waters from the north. 2 to 4 ft seas south of Ocracoke
Inlet will build to 3-5 ft tonight and remain at 3-5 ft through
Sat. North of Ocracoke Inlet seas seas have built to about 4-6
ft and will remain around 4-6 ft through Sat.

LONG TERM /Saturday night through Tuesday/...
As of 400 AM Friday...SCA In Effect through 6Z Tuesday (and will
likely need to be extended further with future updates) for
coastal waters north of Ocracoke.

Sustained NE winds 10-15 kt Saturday and Sunday, then 15-20 kt
Monday before dropping back down to 10-15 kt Tuesday. Winds have
continued trending down Sunday into Monday, forecasted to remain
generally below 25 kts. Waves greater than 6 ft from the low
offshore have warranted an SCA issuance for the coastal waters
N of Ocracoke (with other coastal waters also likely to reach
SCA criteria seas early next week given the current forecast),
Seas will be 2-7 ft Saturday, 2-6 ft Sunday, and 2-8 ft
Monday/Tuesday as gusty winds + the low offshore results in
higher swell. Waters off Crystal Coast and coastal Onslow will
be a bit protected from the more easterly swell courtesy of Cape
Lookout, and will be on the lower end of these wave height
ranges. OBX (particularly north of Hatteras) and the Gulf Stream will
not be protected and will see the higher values in the ranges
above.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 320 PM Fri...Coastal flooding will continue to be a
threat given the higher than normal astronomical tide cycle into
early next week during high tide each day. Coastal Flood
Advisories remain in effect for all oceanside coastal areas into
Monday mornings high tide. Increased swell from a low offshore
brings minor overwash concerns early next week for OBX north of
Cape Hatteras.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM EDT Monday for NCZ195-196-
     199-203>205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT
     Tuesday for AMZ150.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RCF
SHORT TERM...RCF
LONG TERM...RJ
AVIATION...RCF/RJ
MARINE...RCF/RJ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX