031
FXUS62 KMHX 272038
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
438 PM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will move offshore and stall just south of
the area tonight. High pressure then builds in from the north
Friday into Saturday with another front approaching late Sunday
through Monday. High pressure once again builds over the area
from the north on Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 330 PM Thursday...A cold front is currently located
across the northern tier roughly stretching from Goldsboro to
Oregon Inlet while a pre-frontal line of showers and
thunderstorms pushing toward the coast from near Rodanthe to
Jacksonville. Ahead of this line, the environment remains quite
unstable with MLCAPE in excess of 2500 J/kg and some storms have
become strong to severe despite meager shear around 20-30 kt.
The severe threat will quickly diminish once the line moves
offshore in the next couple of hours and a more stable airmass
builds in.

The storms are also bringing some relief from the heat and have
cancelled the Heat Advisory for much of the area except southern
coastal sections ahead of the storms, but will cancel all
remaining zones with the afternoon package as the outflow has
reached the coast.

Lingering shower and thunderstorm activity is expected to end
by midnight as the front sags southward and drier northerly flow
develops across the area. Cannot rule out patchy fog
development late with moist low levels but ensemble guidance
probs remain quite low, generally less than 20% chance. Lows
are projected to be in the low to mid 70s.


&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
As of 4 PM Thu...The cold front will stall offshore Friday with
high pressure ridging in from the north bringing easterly flow
and somewhat cooler temps across the area with highs in the
lower 90s away from the coast and mid to upper 80s along the
coast. It will remain quite moist with PW values around 1.75"
to near 2" and could see isolated to scattered storms develop
in the afternoon with CAPE values around 1500-2000 J/kg but
shear will be minimal and storms should remain below severe
criteria. The best chance for convection will occur along the
southern sections along the sea breeze as it migrates inland.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 330 AM Thurs...Once again the heat and humidity will be
the main story in the long term to start as high pressure
ridging builds overhead this weekend. Heat related impacts will
be a threat most afternoons through Sunday, with the most
oppressive heat potential both Saturday and Sunday. Scattered
diurnal activity is expected through Sunday, with better
chances for precip arriving Sunday night and into Monday as
another front moves in. Expecting dry conditions from Tuesday
into the end of the period.

Saturday through Monday... The heat and humidity return in full
force this weekend as high pressure ridging restrengthens over
the area. High temps will generally range from the upper 80s
along the immediate coast and OBX to the mid to upper 90s across
the Coastal Plain. Combined with the high humidity across ENC
heat indices will reach 100 to potentially 110 this weekend.
With lows only getting down into the 70s each night, there will
not be much relief overnight either resulting in an increased
threat for excessive heat.

Otherwise diurnally driven showers and storms will be possible
on Sat with increased precip chances on Sunday afternoon through
Monday with the approach of a cold front. This cold front will
track across the region on Monday with the precip threat
gradually ending from northwest to southeast Mon night. Given
the forecasted cloudcover and precip chances on Mon temps will
also be lower with Highs only getting into the 80s.

Tuesday through midweek...Behind this front next week the heat and
humidity looks to break finally with dry conditions and near normal
temps expected.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Friday/...
As of 4 PM Thursday...A weak cold front will slowly push across
rtes late this afternoon with a line of prefrontal showers and
thunderstorms will bring periods of sub-VFR across rtes. Some
storms could also produce strong wind gusts and large hail.
A few showers and storms may continue into the evening hours
will be weaker once the initial line moves offshore. Generally
dry conditions expected through the rest of the overnight.
Could see patchy fog develop late tonight with light/calm winds
and moist low levels but HREF ensemble props for sub-VFR
conditions remains low at less than 20% for most areas. Isolated
to scattered showers and storms will be possible Friday
afternoon with best chances across southern rtes.

LONG TERM /Friday night through Tuesday/...
As of 345 AM Thurs... Diurnally driven shower and thunderstorm
activity is forecast across ENC on Fri and Sat with some periods
of sub-VFR conditions possible each afternoon and evening.
Another cold front will arrive late Sun and bring an increased
chance of sub- VFR conditions through Monday before VFR
conditions potentially return on Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Friday/...
As of 415 PM Thursday...A line of prefrontal showers and storms
will move across the waters late this afternoon and evening
bringing strong wind gusts and large hail. A weak cold front
will push through the waters overnight with high pressure
building in from the north on Friday. Winds are expected to be
around 10 kt or less becoming NE late tonight, becoming easterly
around 10-20 kt on Friday. Seas will be around 2-4 ft

LONG TERM /Friday night through Monday/...
As of 345 AM Thurs... Decent boating conditions forecast
through Sat before a cold front tracks across our waters Sun
night into Monday bringing widespread shower and thunderstorm
activity as well as elevated winds and seas.

As a ridge of high pressure gradually builds in from the north on
Fri, northeast to easterly winds at 5-15 kts and 2 to 4 ft seas
will persist across our waters into Fri night. As high pressure
ridging gradually slides offshore winds will turn to a SE`rly
direction on Sat. Winds will continue to gradually turn Sat
night into Sun to a SW`rly direction while also increasing to
10-20 kts as a cold front approaches from the west bringing our
next threat for unsettled conditions across the waters Sun night
into Mon. Seas will remain around 2 to 4 ft through the rest of
the period, though would not be shocked to see some 5 ft seas
near the Gulf Stream waters Sun night into Mon as the front
track across the area.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...SK
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...RCF/RJ
AVIATION...SK/RCF
MARINE...SK/RCF