Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC
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031 FXUS62 KMHX 272038 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 438 PM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A weak cold front will move offshore and stall just south of the area tonight. High pressure then builds in from the north Friday into Saturday with another front approaching late Sunday through Monday. High pressure once again builds over the area from the north on Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 330 PM Thursday...A cold front is currently located across the northern tier roughly stretching from Goldsboro to Oregon Inlet while a pre-frontal line of showers and thunderstorms pushing toward the coast from near Rodanthe to Jacksonville. Ahead of this line, the environment remains quite unstable with MLCAPE in excess of 2500 J/kg and some storms have become strong to severe despite meager shear around 20-30 kt. The severe threat will quickly diminish once the line moves offshore in the next couple of hours and a more stable airmass builds in. The storms are also bringing some relief from the heat and have cancelled the Heat Advisory for much of the area except southern coastal sections ahead of the storms, but will cancel all remaining zones with the afternoon package as the outflow has reached the coast. Lingering shower and thunderstorm activity is expected to end by midnight as the front sags southward and drier northerly flow develops across the area. Cannot rule out patchy fog development late with moist low levels but ensemble guidance probs remain quite low, generally less than 20% chance. Lows are projected to be in the low to mid 70s. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/... As of 4 PM Thu...The cold front will stall offshore Friday with high pressure ridging in from the north bringing easterly flow and somewhat cooler temps across the area with highs in the lower 90s away from the coast and mid to upper 80s along the coast. It will remain quite moist with PW values around 1.75" to near 2" and could see isolated to scattered storms develop in the afternoon with CAPE values around 1500-2000 J/kg but shear will be minimal and storms should remain below severe criteria. The best chance for convection will occur along the southern sections along the sea breeze as it migrates inland. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 330 AM Thurs...Once again the heat and humidity will be the main story in the long term to start as high pressure ridging builds overhead this weekend. Heat related impacts will be a threat most afternoons through Sunday, with the most oppressive heat potential both Saturday and Sunday. Scattered diurnal activity is expected through Sunday, with better chances for precip arriving Sunday night and into Monday as another front moves in. Expecting dry conditions from Tuesday into the end of the period. Saturday through Monday... The heat and humidity return in full force this weekend as high pressure ridging restrengthens over the area. High temps will generally range from the upper 80s along the immediate coast and OBX to the mid to upper 90s across the Coastal Plain. Combined with the high humidity across ENC heat indices will reach 100 to potentially 110 this weekend. With lows only getting down into the 70s each night, there will not be much relief overnight either resulting in an increased threat for excessive heat. Otherwise diurnally driven showers and storms will be possible on Sat with increased precip chances on Sunday afternoon through Monday with the approach of a cold front. This cold front will track across the region on Monday with the precip threat gradually ending from northwest to southeast Mon night. Given the forecasted cloudcover and precip chances on Mon temps will also be lower with Highs only getting into the 80s. Tuesday through midweek...Behind this front next week the heat and humidity looks to break finally with dry conditions and near normal temps expected. && .AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... SHORT TERM /through Friday/... As of 4 PM Thursday...A weak cold front will slowly push across rtes late this afternoon with a line of prefrontal showers and thunderstorms will bring periods of sub-VFR across rtes. Some storms could also produce strong wind gusts and large hail. A few showers and storms may continue into the evening hours will be weaker once the initial line moves offshore. Generally dry conditions expected through the rest of the overnight. Could see patchy fog develop late tonight with light/calm winds and moist low levels but HREF ensemble props for sub-VFR conditions remains low at less than 20% for most areas. Isolated to scattered showers and storms will be possible Friday afternoon with best chances across southern rtes. LONG TERM /Friday night through Tuesday/... As of 345 AM Thurs... Diurnally driven shower and thunderstorm activity is forecast across ENC on Fri and Sat with some periods of sub-VFR conditions possible each afternoon and evening. Another cold front will arrive late Sun and bring an increased chance of sub- VFR conditions through Monday before VFR conditions potentially return on Tuesday. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through Friday/... As of 415 PM Thursday...A line of prefrontal showers and storms will move across the waters late this afternoon and evening bringing strong wind gusts and large hail. A weak cold front will push through the waters overnight with high pressure building in from the north on Friday. Winds are expected to be around 10 kt or less becoming NE late tonight, becoming easterly around 10-20 kt on Friday. Seas will be around 2-4 ft LONG TERM /Friday night through Monday/... As of 345 AM Thurs... Decent boating conditions forecast through Sat before a cold front tracks across our waters Sun night into Monday bringing widespread shower and thunderstorm activity as well as elevated winds and seas. As a ridge of high pressure gradually builds in from the north on Fri, northeast to easterly winds at 5-15 kts and 2 to 4 ft seas will persist across our waters into Fri night. As high pressure ridging gradually slides offshore winds will turn to a SE`rly direction on Sat. Winds will continue to gradually turn Sat night into Sun to a SW`rly direction while also increasing to 10-20 kts as a cold front approaches from the west bringing our next threat for unsettled conditions across the waters Sun night into Mon. Seas will remain around 2 to 4 ft through the rest of the period, though would not be shocked to see some 5 ft seas near the Gulf Stream waters Sun night into Mon as the front track across the area. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...SK SHORT TERM...SK LONG TERM...RCF/RJ AVIATION...SK/RCF MARINE...SK/RCF