Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC
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418 FXUS62 KMHX 300033 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 833 PM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Hot and humid conditions persist Sunday ahead of an approaching cold front. The front will move through the area Monday morning with high pressure building back into the area from the north on Tuesday. Oppressive heat and humidity build back in over the second half of next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... As of 8 PM Saturday...No major changes with the forecast. Showers have dissipated this evening with a loss of daytime heating. As of 4 PM Sat...Widely scattered showers primarily across the coastal plain late this afternoon will dissipate this evening with loss of heating. Haven`t seen much lightning despite MLCAPE around 1500-2000 J/kg likely due to limited shear and mid-level subsidence. Still cannot rule out an isolated thunderstorm through the remainder of the afternoon. Generally dry conditions expected through the remainder of the overnight but could see an isolated shower across the coastal waters skirting the coast, mainly after midnight. Steamy conditions persist overnight with lows in the mid 70s to around 80. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... As of 815 PM Saturday...No major changes with the forecast for this update. Bumped up PoPs a notch for the coastal plain west of hwy 17 in the evening as guidance continues to be in agreement on high coverage showers and thunderstorms developing ahead of and along the lee trough. As of 430 PM Sat...A mid-level shortwave and attendant cold front will pushing across the Mid- Atlantic on Sunday. A moist and unstable airmass will persist ahead of the front allowing for scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop with daytime heating with primary forcing through mid afternoon along the sea breeze with storms for the most part remaining sub-severe as shear will continue to be meager. However, a more organized line of thunderstorms is progged to develop along the lee trough across the piedmont and advance toward ENC through the afternoon. There are some timing differences when this line will reach ENC but could reach western counties by late afternoon. A few storms would become severe with damaging wind gusts from wet microbursts being the primary severe threat and SPC has all of ENC in a marginal risk (1 of 5) for severe storms. With PW values in excess of 2" storms could also produce torrential rainfall with localized flooding possible in poor drainage and low lying areas. Moist southerly flow will bring hot and humid conditions across the region with highs reaching the mid 90s inland and upper 80s to around 90 along the coast. With dewpoints in the mid 70s, the heat index peak around 105-107 degrees away from the coast and have issued a Heat Advisory for all but immediate coastal zones. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 350 PM Sat...The start of the long term period will be rather unsettled as a cold front approaches ENC on Sunday and eventually tracks across the region on Monday. This front will bring the threat for shower and thunderstorm activity mainly Sunday night into Monday. However, this front will also give us a brief respite from the heat and humidity early in the week. High pressure then settles in from the north and west on Tue and remains the main weather feature into the end of the week bringing a return of hot and humid conditions to ENC by late next week. Sunday night and Monday...Ridging begins to break down in advance of an incoming positively tilted trough on Sunday. Associated cold front will approach ENC and then track across the region Mon morning bringing more widespread precip with rain and thunderstorm activity ending from NW to SE Mon afternoon. SBCAPES will peak around 1500-2500 J/kg Sunday afternoon with a prefrontal surface trough promoting lift there will be an isolated severe threat across ENC into the evening. Damaging winds, torrential rainfall, and small hail will be the primary concern within the strongest storms. The limiting factors will be the lack of strong forcing and weak wind shear as deep layer shear will generally remain below 20 kts. A marginal severe environment will remain in place overnight Sunday night. Instability will generally remain around 500-1000 J/kg and while shear will remain weak (generally 15-25 kts at most) the front will provide some stronger forcing allowing for a continued damaging wind threat within the strongest storms. In addition, with PWATs at 2+ inches and an expected slow storm motion, heavy rainfall will also be possible. Latest guidance suggest widespread 1-2 inch rainfall totals between Sun and Mon with localized amounts in excess of 3+ inches possible bringing a threat for isolated localized flash flooding anywhere thunderstorms train over each other or remain stationary. Lows Sunday night get down into the 70s with high temps on Monday not getting much higher, only into the low to mid 80s as widespread cloudcover and ongoing rain and thunderstorm activity limit heating on Monday. Tuesday into the end of next week... Not much change in the forecast from Tuesday onwards. Behind the aforementioned front, high pressure builds in from the north and west and remains over the Eastern Seaboard into the end of the week bringing mainly dry weather to ENC though we may start seeing an increase in precip chances by Fri. In addition to the dry weather a brief respite from the heat is forecast on Tue and Wed with a return to hot and humid conditions later next week as a warming trend commences with heat related impacts becoming increasingly likely to end the workweek next week. && .AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... SHORT TERM /through Sunday/... As of 830 PM Saturday...Generally VFR conditions through the overnight as light winds will preclude fog development. However, sufficient low level moisture is in place that we could see sub-VFR stratus develop tonight and also during the morning as LCLs rise. Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible from late morning through the afternoon bringing brief sub-VFR conditions. A more organized and widespread line of prefrontal convection is expected to move into the region late afternoon that could bring thunderstorms with frequent lightning, damaging wind gusts and torrential rain. LONG TERM /Sunday through Wednesday/... As of 4 AM Sat... No significant changes in the aviation forecast as sub VFR conditions are becoming increasingly likely Sun night through Mon as a cold front tracks across the region bringing widespread shower and thunderstorm activity. VFR conditions return Tues into Wed. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /Through Sunday/... As of 400 PM Sat...A cold front will approach the waters through the short term. Sly winds around 10-15 kt will continue through Sunday morning then increase to 15-20 kt in the afternoon as the front gets closer. Seas will continue around 2-4 ft. LONG TERM /Sunday night through Wednesday/... As of 4 PM Sat...Increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms will be likely Sun evening bringing a chance for locally enhanced winds and seas within any storm that tracks over our inland and coastal waters. Front will then track across the region on Mon ending precip chances from north to south and allowing winds to shift to a N`rly direction behind the front at 15-20 kts Mon morning with winds gradually easing down to 10-15 kts and becoming NE`rly by Tue as high pressure ridge once again extends across the area from the north. Winds will ease further Tue night into Wed down to 5-10 kts and continue to veer to an E to SE direction as ridging gradually pushes offshore. Seas will generally remain around 2-4 ft through this timeframe though 5 ft seas will be possible near the Gulf Stream waters Mon. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM EDT Sunday for NCZ029-044>047- 079>081-090>092-094-193-194-198. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...SK/RJ SHORT TERM...SK/RJ LONG TERM...RCF AVIATION...SK/RCF/RJ MARINE...SK/RCF