Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
769 FXUS63 KMKX 270310 AAA AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 1010 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and scattered storms for Friday into early Saturday. There is a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms during this time. - River flooding and high water levels will continue this week and into this weekend. - Moderate Swim Risk for Lake Michigan beaches into tonight. && .UPDATE... Issued 1010 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 The lake breeze packed a punch this evening as it rolled inland with gusts up to 22 mph. Temperatures fell quickly from the upper 70s to the upper 60s to lower 70s with the lake breeze passage. Expect a drier and cooler night with some lower clouds at first, but then clearing skies overnight. Cronce && .SHORT TERM... Issued 300 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Tonight through Thursday night: There may be some sprinkles that occur with some lingering weak instability until early this evening. The lake breeze boundary may help initiate this activity, as well as from peak heating. The lake breeze boundary may meander east and west near the lakeshore as well. A Moderate Swim Risk is anticipated into tonight for the Lake Michigan beaches from Sheboygan County south to Kenosha County, with increasing northeast winds and building waves of 2 to 4 feet. High pressure building into the region tonight into Thursday will bring quiet weather. There may be ground fog overnight in low lying areas. Cooler but still pleasant temperatures are expected during this period, with highs Thursday in the middle 70s inland. Onshore winds should keep lakeshore areas in the upper 60s. The high will shift to the east Thursday night, with middle to high clouds gradually increasing. Wood && .LONG TERM... Issued 300 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Friday through Wednesday: Models and ensembles continue to show warm air and moisture advection Friday into Friday night, followed by a cold frontal passage on Saturday morning. There is a shortwave trough shifting through the area Friday afternoon, with a south to southwest low level jet feeding into the region during this time. This should result in periods of showers, with elevated thunderstorms at times Friday into Friday night. Forecast soundings continue to show some tall skinny elevated CAPE, with deep layer bulk shear of 25 to 35 knots and precipitable water values nearing 2.00 inches. At this time, it looks like mainly a small hail and perhaps gusty winds with the stronger storms during this time. One thing to watch will be if there is any mean layer CAPE that develops Saturday morning ahead of the cold front. The deep layer shear is 30 to 40 knots or more, so there could be more of a strong to severe risk then. It would be better if the cold front came through later in the day for that potential, so definitely still uncertainty for severe storms. High pressure should bring dry conditions for later Saturday into Sunday or Sunday night/Monday morning, with cooler and less humid conditions. Ensembles continue to indicate a good chance for showers and thunderstorms with warm air advection for Monday night into Tuesday or Wednesday. Uncertainty with the placement of features during this time, but it does look wet. Wood && .AVIATION... Issued 1010 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 The lake breeze, which is also more of a cold front this evening, packed a punch with winds and the northeast winds are remaining elevated, especially near Lake Michigan. Look for diminishing winds after midnight. Low clouds have also spread into east central WI this evening and are expanding southwestward with time. Bases may be around 3000 feet for a short period of time, but otherwise expect low-end VFR until a little after midnight. Winds will be light out of the east Thursday with diurnal cumulus cloud bases around 5000 ft AGL. Cronce && .MARINE... Issued 300 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Gusty north to northeast winds are expected into tonight over the open waters of Lake Michigan. High pressure around 30.1 inches will slowly move across Lake Michigan on Thursday, bringing weakening winds. Northeast winds and building waves should be below Small Craft Advisory levels into tonight for the nearshore waters. Increasing southeast to south winds are then forecast for Friday into Friday night, becoming southwest to west on Saturday, as a cold front moves through the region. Winds and waves may reach Small Craft Advisory levels Friday into Friday night, mainly north of Port Washington. Chances for showers and thunderstorms increase during this period. Gusty northwest winds then should occur Saturday night into Sunday, before high pressure around 30.2 inches moves into the region Sunday night. Wood && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...None. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.twitter.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee