Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
756 FXUS63 KMKX 190229 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 929 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Well-above average temperatures continue into the weekend. - Dry conditions prevail through the day tomorrow, with a chance for showers and thunderstorms tomorrow evening and night. Additional rain chances are expected Saturday night into early next week. && .UPDATE... Issued 929 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024 Potential for fog is diminishing as a layer of cloud cover aloft prevents radiational cooling efficiency tonight. However, areas along the Kettle Moraine that saw increased dewpoints from the lake breeze this afternoon still stand a chance for ground fog development. Otherwise, lows in the mid to upper 50s are expected away from Lake Michigan, with the Lake Michigan regions seeing lows in the lower 60s. MH && .SHORT TERM... Issued 234 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024 Tonight through Thursday night: It`s another warm and dry afternoon across the region, with temperatures in the low to mid 80s in many locations. Some scattered high level clouds will move into the area this evening and overnight, with temperatures falling into the mid to upper 50s. The daytime hours tomorrow should generally be dry, with cloud cover increasing from the west late in the day, ahead of a weak cold front. Highs tomorrow will be very similar to the last few days, with mid to upper 80s expected. It will feel a touch more humid as low to mid 60s dewpoints advect into the area ahead of the frontal boundary. Convection will develop to our west Thursday afternoon, and then begin to move into southern Wisconsin during the mid to late evening hours. Showers and storms should be slowly diminishing in both coverage and intensity as they progress eastward, given a more hostile airmass and weaker lift. A few strong storms aren`t totally out of the question west of Madison, but the threat is low. It is possible that a few locations across the far east totally miss out on precipitation, depending on how quickly convection dissipates. Boxell && .LONG TERM... Issued 234 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024 Friday through Wednesday: A few showers may linger into Friday morning, but most of the day looks to be dry. Temperatures won`t be appreciably cooler behind the front, with highs in the mid 80s. Weak high pressure moves through the area Friday night and Saturday, with rain chances increasing Saturday night as a broad area of warm and moist advection overspreads the region. Activity Saturday night will likely be fairly widely scattered in nature, but lift will increase Sunday morning into Sunday evening as a shortwave and associated surface low lift northeastward from the Central Plains. These features should then force a cold front through the area on Monday. Continued troughing over the northern Plains and Great Lakes will keep low chances (25-35%) for rain in place across the region through mid week, with highs expected to be in the 70s. Boxell && .AVIATION... Issued 929 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024 VFR ceilings are expected through tonight, with patchy fog possible in northern lakeshore terminals through portions of the Kettle Moraine. This fog is still expected to be transient and not cause major impacts, although it may lower visibilities to 2 SM at times in KSBM. Light and variable to light southeast winds overnight tonight will become southerly Thursday. A lake breeze may shift winds more southeasterly at lakeshore terminals during the afternoon hours. MH && .MARINE... Issued 234 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024 High pressure over New England will gradually weaken and drift east on Thursday, with low pressure strengthening over the Plains. This will produce south-southeast winds Thursday into Friday. In addition, a weak front will push southeastward across the lake Thursday night into Friday, bringing showers and isolated thunderstorms. Drier conditions are expected Saturday before another area of low pressure begins to push into the Great Lakes region early next week, with winds remaining generally easterly ahead of this system. As the low pressure approaches, additional showers and thunderstorm chances develop. A return to more westerly winds are expected behind the system. Boxell && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...None. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.twitter.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee