745
FXUS63 KMKX 291958
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
258 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Generally small chances for a shower or thunderstorm to
  develop across northern and eastern parts of the area along
  the cold front until early this evening.

- River flooding and high water levels remain elevated into next
  week. Additional rises will be possible with any heavier
  rainfall.

- A moderate swim risk is expected for the Lake Michigan beaches
  in Racine County tonight into Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 258 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

Tonight through Sunday night:

The main cold front is still pushing southeast through eastern
and southern Wisconsin, with some showers and thunderstorms well
to the north northeast of the area. The influence of the 500 mb
shortwave trough is helping those showers and storms develop.

There is just the cold front providing upward vertical motion
over the area, so it may be tougher to get a shower and/or
thunderstorm to develop. There may be 1000 J/kg or more of mean
layer CAPE with around 45 to 50 knots of deep layer bulk shear,
capped somewhat by the warm low levels. Could see gusty winds
and small hail with a stronger storm, if they can form.

CAMs suggest that any activity would be isolated to widely
scattered, and may be limited to northern and eastern portions
of the forecast area. Will continue to mention smaller PoPs for
this potential until early this evening, highest toward the
northeastern parts of the area.

Gusty northwest to north winds behind the cold front tonight
into Sunday will bring cold air advection and cooler and less
humid air into the area. Skies should gradually clear out by
later tonight, with some diurnal cumulus clouds possible Sunday
afternoon.

High pressure will move across the area Sunday night, and
provide good radiational cooling conditions. Lows tonight around
50 or in the lower 50s are expected, with lows Sunday night
into the upper 40s inland.

There is a moderate swim risk for the Lake Michigan beaches in
Racine County tonight into Sunday. Breaking waves and currents
are expected. Stay away from dangerous areas like piers,
breakwalls and river outlets. Always have a flotation device
with you in the water.

Wood

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 258 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

Monday through Saturday:

High pressure will move east of the region on Monday and Monday
night, bringing another nice day.

Models and ensembles continues to show warm air advection and a
low level jet pushing moisture into the region for later Monday
night into Tuesday evening. A cold front then shifts through
later Tuesday night or Wednesday morning. This should bring a
round of showers and mainly elevated thunderstorms. Too early to
say if strong to severe storms would occur, though lingering
clouds may limit surface heating and instability. Precipitable
water values again reach to around or over 2.00 inches, so
locally heavy rainfall may be possible.

May get a break Wednesday, before another period of on and off
showers and storms moves in for Independence Day and Friday. Too
early to say how much of this activity may occur, but ensembles
continue to show a relatively wet period during this time.
Ensembles suggest high temperatures trend back into the 80s by
later next week.

Wood

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 258 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

Scattered to broken ceilings have mixed to VFR category across
the area. Westerly winds with gusts to around 15 knots are
expected as well, veering northwesterly later this afternoon and
early this evening, as the main cold front moves through.

May see a shower or thunderstorm develop with the frontal
passage until early evening, though uncertain if this will
occur. Sheboygan would have the better chances of seeing any
activity, but will not mention in TAFs at this time.

Gusty northwest winds are expected tonight, becoming north
Sunday and remaining gusty. Winds should shift northeast for
terminals near Lake Michigan by Sunday afternoon, with some
gusts to 15 knots or so. May see some diurnal cumulus clouds
develop Sunday afternoon. Light and variable winds should occur
Sunday night, as high pressure moves across the area.

Wood

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 258 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

A cold front will across Lake Michigan into this evening,
causing winds to shift northwest. Gusty northwest to north winds
are then expected tonight into Sunday. These winds will weaken
Sunday night into Monday, and generally become east, as high
pressure around 30.3 inches builds in from the Northern Plains.

A Small Craft Advisory is in effect tonight into the middle
morning hours on Sunday, for the gusty northwest to north winds.
Waves should remain in the 2 to 4 foot range.

The high will move east of the region Monday night, with
increasing southeast to south winds developing over the lake.
These winds may linger into Tuesday night, before a cold front
moves east across the region. Small Craft Advisory level winds
and waves may occur Tuesday into Tuesday night.

Wood

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646...7 PM
     Saturday to 9 AM Sunday.

&&

$$

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