Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
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764 FXUS62 KMLB 261438 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 1038 AM EDT Sun May 26 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 952 AM EDT Sun May 26 2024 Primary weather concern for today continues to be heat, as stacked high pressure and westerly flow pushes afternoon highs into the M-U90s inland, L-M90s along the I-95 corridor, and U80s-L90s along the barrier islands. Low humidity and virtually no instability will limit rain chances to just 20 pct along along the sea breeze from the Treasure Coast to Okeechobee County in the afternoon and evening. Potential for lightning storms is still a stretch at best. HREF probabilities are virtually zero, but NBM is up to around 25 pct and model soundings near the sea breeze collision show enough of a favorable environment to support a slight chance for storms, so went ahead and added lightning. Might even see a stronger storm with gusty winds if the sea breeze and favorable conditions come together at the right time. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Issued at 256 AM EDT Sun May 26 2024 Key Messages: - Heat concerns continue through the middle of this week, with afternoon highs in the 90s and peak heat indices reaching 100 and above. - Rain and storm chances return to the forecast on Tuesday as a weak front approaches, with diurnal convection continuing through the remainder of the week. Today-Tonight...Mid-level ridging will extend towards the Florida peninsula from the Gulf of Mexico. The associated high pressure at the surface located over the Gulf will move eastward towards the Florida peninsula, bringing slightly drier air, which will reduce rain chances today into tonight. Isolated showers will be possible as the east coast sea breeze develops and moves inland, but guidance indicates this activity, if it does manage to develop, will likely remain across the Treasure Coast and near Lake Okeechobee. Low confidence in any sort of storm development led to thunder being left out of the forecast for today, but will continue to reevaluate as more model data comes in. A stray thunderstorm cannot fully be ruled out. Any shower activity will diminish overnight. Heat will continue to be a concern across east central Florida, as temperatures this afternoon climb into the low 90s along the coast and into the mid to upper 90s across the interior west of I-95. Peak heat indices across east central Florida will reach 100 to 105 today, so be sure to take frequent breaks in the shade or in an air conditioned building if spending extended periods of time outdoors and stay well hydrated. Temperatures overnight will fall into the low 70s. Monday...Mostly dry conditions are forecast to continue across the area on Monday, as the area of high pressure is expected to remain situated across the Florida peninsula. In a similar set up to today, the development and push inland of the east coast sea breeze could lead to some isolated showers across the Treasure Coast and near Lake Okeechobee, with low confidence in any sort of storm development. Monday night, rain and storm chances are forecast to increase across the local Atlantic waters. Heat will continue to be a concern on Monday with highs in the 90s and peak heat indices 100 to 105. Overnight lows in the low to mid 70s. Tuesday-Saturday...A mid-level trough digging into the southeastern US will push a weak frontal boundary southwards towards the Florida peninsula and local Atlantic waters on Tuesday, bringing increasing moisture locally. This will result in a return of rain and storm chances, with PoPs increasing to 30 to 50 percent across the area. Isolated storms will also be possible. The boundary is forecast to settle across the peninsula and gradually diminish, with lingering moisture from the boundary combining with the east coast sea breeze to produce diurnal convection each afternoon through the remainder of the week. PoPs remain between 20 to 40 percent, with isolated storms possible. Activity through the long term will diminish each evening into the overnight hours. Warm temperatures will continue across east central Florida through the extended period, though guidance does have temperatures decreasing a couple of degrees each afternoon. Highs in the 90s Tuesday through Thursday will fall slightly into the mid 80s to low 90s Friday and Saturday. Peak heat indices reaching over 100 will continue Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday. Overnight lows will remain in the upper 60s to mid 70s. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFs) Issued at 722 AM EDT Sun May 26 2024 VFR conditions prevailing. Lower coverage of SHRA forecast today, with confidence in any impacts too low to include VCSH at any of the TAF sites. However, the highest chance for seeing a shower will be along and inland from the Treasure Coast. Light offshore winds this morning will veer E/SE into the afternoon at around 8-12kts as the sea breeze develops and pushes inland. The sea breeze collision is expected to occur near MCO in the late afternoon/early evening, preventing the east coast sea breeze from reaching LEE. Winds then become light and generally westerly overnight. && .MARINE... Issued at 256 AM EDT Sun May 26 2024 Today-Tonight...Favorable boating conditions will persist across the local Atlantic waters today, with seas between 1 to 3 feet. West-southwest winds around 5 knots this morning will back to out of the south-southeast at 10 to 15 knots as the east coast sea breeze develops and moves onshore. Winds will then diminish to 5 to 10 knots out of the west-southwest once again tonight. Mostly dry conditions are expected across the local waters today, though some isolated showers cannot fully be ruled out this afternoon into the overnight hours. Monday-Thursday...Favorable boating conditions are forecast to continue through much of this week. Seas will remain between 1 to 3 feet through the period, with light west-southwest winds Monday and Tuesday becoming south-southeast and north-northwest winds Wednesday and Thursday becoming easterly as the east coast sea breeze develops and moves inland. Scattered showers and isolated storms return to the forecast on Tuesday as a weak boundary approaches the area and settles across the waters, with continuing rain and storm chances through Thursday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 256 AM EDT Sun May 26 2024 Ongoing heat across east central Florida will lead to continued sensitive fire weather conditions. Minimum RH values will remain in the 35 to 45 percent range across the interior west of I-95 through the remainder of this weekend and at least through the middle of the week. Winds are forecast to remain below 15 mph, with the east coast sea breeze making west-southwest winds become east-southeast. Mostly dry conditions are forecast today and Monday, with rain and storm chances returning Tuesday through the rest of the week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 93 71 94 72 / 10 10 10 10 MCO 96 72 97 74 / 10 10 10 10 MLB 91 73 93 74 / 10 10 20 20 VRB 92 73 95 74 / 20 10 20 20 LEE 95 73 94 75 / 10 0 10 10 SFB 96 73 96 74 / 10 10 10 10 ORL 96 74 96 75 / 10 10 10 10 FPR 93 71 96 72 / 20 10 20 20 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ UPDATE...Haley AVIATION...Leahy