589
FXUS62 KMLB 012002
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
402 PM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 345 PM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024

Thru Tonight...The east coast sea breeze is pushing slowly inland,
sparking isolated showers and storms behind the boundary near the
coast. Additional storms should lift north from south FL into
interior Martin/St Lucie counties. A late collision with the west
coast breeze is still forecast across the north interior around
sunset resulting in scattered storms (50-60% coverage) and these
should linger into the late evening. A tongue of drier air remains
across the north seen on GOES-16 PWAT product and late morning
Cape sounding measured warm H5 temps of -4.7C so this may limit
storm coverage and intensity. A quiet, muggy overnight is
forecast with mins in the mid to upper 70s.

Tue-Wed... (modified) A weak frontal boundary near the FL-GA
border will dissipate and allow the surface ridge axis to lift
north of the area. Strong mid level ridge over the deep South will
build heights over FL increasing subsidence/drying aloft and this
will gradually reduce coverage of diurnal convection. Focus for
showers and storms will initially be near the coast sparked by the
inland moving sea breeze during the late morning/early aftn,
transitioning to the interior sections late in the day. Scattered
(~40%) coverage expected near the coast with 50-60% coverage
interior. Max temps in the low to mid 90s is at or slightly above
normal but the high dewpoints/humidity will produce maximum heat
index readings of 102-107. Pockets of Major HeatRisk will creep
into areas north of Interstate 4, indicative of unusually hot and
humid conditions even for Florida, and partly driven by overnight
low temperatures running 4-7F above normal.

Thu-Next Weekend (previous)... Heat-related impacts will drive
the weather story for this timeframe, along with at least
scattered (30-60%) storm chances. Our weather will continue to be
dominated by the strong upper high, characterized by H5 heights
exceeding the 95th percentile of climatology. H85 temperatures
rise to around +20C. Boundary layer flow will remain southeast
early in this period before subtly veering toward the south late
in the weekend. This will continue to draw high humidity out of
the tropics, with dew points in the mid 70s F.

Statistical guidance continues to suggest widespread mid 90s over
the interior and low/mid 90s along the coast. Peak heat indices
are forecast to range from 102-107F for the Fourth of July and
Friday before climbing toward 104-109F next weekend. A Heat
Advisory (108F) may be warranted for at least some of this
timeframe as we get closer in time, especially considering the
number of residents and visitors who will be spending time
outdoors. Planning to enjoy our beaches, attend holiday
celebrations, or visit area attractions? Make sure to pack the
water and sunscreen, and expect to need some time in the shade,
A/C, or pool!

Much of the troposphere will remain warmer than normal,
contributing to relatively poor mid-level lapse rates. Through
Saturday, the southeasterly flow should hold the higher storm
chances over the interior (50-60%), with lesser coverage (30-40%)
along the coast. Storm chances may creep up late in the weekend as
the flow veers southerly and mid-level temperatures dip slightly.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 345 PM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024

The Atlc ridge axis draped across central Florida today will lift
north of the local waters by midweek allowing dominant wind flow
to be from the SE becoming enhanced (10-15 knots) each afternoon
near the coast behind the sea breeze. Isolated to scattered
showers and storms are forecast primarily overnight and morning
hours over the open Atlc and morning to early aftn over the
intracoastal waters. The summer doldrums are here with seas 2 FT
or less through Tue, then up to 3 FT offshore through Friday.
Intracoastal and inshore boaters will notice a light to moderate
chop behind the sea breeze each afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 158 PM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024

The east coast sea breeze has developed, moving inland of the
coastal terminals. A late sea breeze collision is forecast across
the interior. TSRA TEMPOs at MCO/ISM from 23/02Z as boundaries
collide. An earlier TEMPO for LEE (21/24Z) as convection moves
eastward along the west coast sea breeze. Not as confident in TSRA
impacts at SFB and have only kept mention of VCTS. VCTS through
the afternoon along the Treasure Coast with a TSRA TEMPO at SUA
(20/23Z). Southeast winds develop behind the east coast sea
breeze, otherwise, southerly flow prevails. Winds generally 10 kts
or less, diminishing after sunset.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  76  92  77  92 /  20  40  20  40
MCO  76  93  77  93 /  40  60  20  60
MLB  76  91  78  90 /  30  40  20  40
VRB  76  91  77  91 /  30  40  20  40
LEE  78  94  79  93 /  40  60  20  60
SFB  77  94  77  93 /  30  60  20  60
ORL  77  94  78  93 /  30  60  20  60
FPR  75  91  76  91 /  30  40  20  50

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Kelly
AVIATION...Law