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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
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104 FXUS64 KMOB 271756 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 1256 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 ...New AVIATION, NEAR TERM... .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1256 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms have developed this afternoon mainly along and east of I-65 leading to temporary reductions in visibilities and gusty winds with the strongest storms. Storms will likely build west during the late afternoon before diminishing overnight. However, expect continued showers and storms along the immediate coast overnight into the early morning before repeating the push inland tomorrow. Winds will be light out of the southwest this afternoon then becoming variable overnight. BB/03 && .NEAR TERM... (Now through Friday) Issued at 1256 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 An active and rather complicated convective pattern is expected to continue through the near term period as an upper-level trough lingers overhead before dissipating late Friday. At the surface, a weak frontal boundary, currently draped across central Mississippi and into northern Alabama will slowly drift southward throughout the day today, likely reaching/entering our northwestern counties by the mid to late afternoon hours. A weak low appears to be developing along this boundary somewhere near the northern Mississippi/Alabama border and will also drift southward throughout the day today. As the upper trough (and flow aloft) begins to weaken, the boundary and its associated low feature should become stationary before dissipating sometime tonight or Friday morning. Abundant, deep moisture will continue to stream into the local area, with PWATs exceeding 2 inches across most, if not all of the area. Storms are already beginning to fire up over the marine zones and across coastal counties along and south of I-10 this morning. This is due to the combination of forcing from the upper trough, abundant moisture, and the highly unstable environment that is in place. In fact, even with a lack of diurnal heating (due to the time of day), SBCAPE values this morning over this particular region range from 2500-3500 J/kg thanks to temperatures in the low 80s and dew points in the upper 70s. Although severe storms are not expected, gusty winds, frequent lightning, and heavy rainfall will be possible with some of these storms. Additionally, the combination of very strong low-level CAPE values and surface vorticity can be conducive for the development of waterspouts over our coastal marine zones. As these storms begin producing outflow boundaries, expect storms to spread inland by the late morning and early afternoon hours, especially for areas along and east of the I-65 corridor, where the best upper- level forcing is located. These storms should gradually wane over time before the next round initiates over our northwestern zones as the surface boundary and antecedent low approaches the area. These storms should push to the south through the late afternoon and early evening hours (this time generally west of I-65) but once again, with little to no shear in place, severe weather is not expected, except for a few stronger pulse-type storms capable of producing gusty winds that may develop along boundary collisions. After a brief lull in overall activity during the late evening hours, the next round of showers and storms look to develop during the early morning hours tomorrow across our coastal counties and marine zones, similar to today. Storms will once again spread inland via outflow boundaries and the sea breeze during the late morning and into the afternoon hours. Severe storms are once again not expected. With the earlier development of convection today, highs are expected to only reach the upper 80s to lower 90s across the area. Although Heat Advisories will not be necessary for today, heat indices will still rise into the 98-103 degree range thanks to dew points in the mid to upper 70s. Lows tonight will remain very mild, with temperatures only dropping into the low 70s inland and the mid to upper 70s closer to the coast. Highs tomorrow will be in the low 90s across much of the area, with heat indices ranging from 100 to 106 degrees. A Moderate Risk of rip currents is now in effect through the period due to increased southwesterly flow leading to increased surf heights. /96 SHORT/LONG TERM... (Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 448 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Upper high pressure will be ridging into our area from the west into the early part of next week. The upper high pressure will drift east by late in the period, being centered MS/AL. With the center of the upper ridge situated to our west over the ArkLaTex region through the weekend, a rather deep northerly flow pattern will persists over our region with some weak shortwave energy likely rounding the eastern periphery of the upper high. This upper energy, combined with a dissipating weak surface frontal boundary over the interior southeast CONUS, along with daytime heating and instability, will allow for scattered to locally numerous showers and storms each day, mainly in the afternoon and evening hours. During the early to middle part of next week, surface high pressure will be ridging in from the east, maintaining the moist low level airmass across the region. This will help maintain a chance for scattered showers and storms each day into the early to middle part of next week, but with the upper ridge building coverages will be a little less than in the first part of the period. Daytime highs through Sunday will primarily be in the low to mid 90s, with afternoon heat indices in the 100-105 degree range. Monday and especially into Tuesday and Wednesday, daytime highs increase into the middle 90s for most locations, with heat indices likely above 108 degrees in many areas. With this, we will potentially be looking at another round of Heat Advisories for at least portions of our area by Monday and then into Wednesday of next week. Nighttime lows will continue to be mainly in the low to mid 70s through the period for most locations, but upper 70s along the immediate coast. 12/13 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 76 90 76 91 76 93 75 94 / 60 70 40 60 20 70 40 60 Pensacola 77 89 79 91 78 93 78 94 / 70 80 50 70 30 70 50 70 Destin 79 88 81 90 80 91 80 91 / 60 80 50 60 30 70 50 70 Evergreen 73 92 73 91 73 93 73 94 / 50 80 30 70 20 70 30 60 Waynesboro 73 92 73 93 73 94 73 96 / 30 50 20 50 20 70 20 50 Camden 73 91 73 90 72 92 73 94 / 40 60 20 60 20 70 30 50 Crestview 74 91 74 93 74 95 74 96 / 50 80 30 70 20 70 40 70 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: www.weather.gov/mob