002
FXUS64 KMOB 291857
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
157 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

...New AVIATION, NEAR TERM...

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 157 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

VFR conditions should generally prevail for the next 24 hours.
Scattered to occasionally numerous showers and thunderstorms
across the region this afternoon will decrease in coverage shortly
after sunset this evening. Most of the activity this afternoon and
evening will be inland, a little to the north of the TAF sites.
Late tonight some coastal showers and storms will again possibly
develop impacting TAF sites before moving farther inland during
the day. Some brief and localized MVFR/IFR conditions could
prevail near the showers and storms. Otherwise, light
southwesterly winds this afternoon and tonight (becoming mare
variable inland tonight) then more light northwesterly area-wide
on Sunday. DS/12

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Now through Sunday)
Issued at 157 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

Our active summertime pattern continues through the weekend.
Looking aloft, a very weak upper- level inverted trough is
expected to linger over the Gulf Coast through the remainder of
the day today before dissipating by the evening hours. By tonight
and into Sunday, an upper ridge over the south central US expands
eastward, placing the local region under the eastern periphery of
this ridge. This gives way to a light northeasterly to easterly
flow pattern aloft, and a few weak shortwave impulses look to pass
overhead as they move within this flow. At the surface, the
dominant feature that will be in place through the period will be
the typical summertime land/sea breeze circulation. With PWATs
exceeding 2 inches across the entire area and a highly unstable
environment in place, scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms are forecast to develop both days. As has been the
case for the past few days, convection will start by developing
over coastal counties and marine zones during the morning hours.
By the afternoon, this activity will spread inland as the sea
breeze pushes northward and interacts with outflow boundaries.
Activity will gradually wane during the evening hours thanks to
the loss of daytime heating. As is the case with typical
summertime convection, although severe storms are generally not
expected, gusty winds, frequent lightning, and heavy rainfall will
be possible with some of the stronger storms that manage to
develop.

Highs for today will top out in the low 90s. We should stay just
below Heat Advisory criteria today, with heat indices climbing into
the 102 to 107 degree range. Lows tonight will remain very mild,
with temperatures only dropping into the mid 70s inland and the
upper 70s to around 80 degrees closer to the coast. Highs tomorrow
look to top out a couple degrees warmer than today... generally in
the mid 90s. This slight bump in temperatures should help to
increase our heat indices into the 105 to 110 degree range, and
therefore a Heat Advisory will likely become necessary for much of
the local area. A Low Risk of rip currents will be in place through
this afternoon. By tonight and especially into Sunday, long period
swell, likely originating from Invest 94L as it emerges into the Bay
of Campeche, will reach our local beaches. This will likely cause a
quick uptick in rip currents, and therefore a High Risk of rip
currents is now in effect from late tonight into Sunday evening. /96

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      76  94  76  95  75  91  76  92 /  30  60  30  60  20  50  20  50
Pensacola   78  93  78  93  78  90  79  91 /  20  50  50  60  30  50  30  70
Destin      80  91  79  92  80  90  80  90 /  20  50  60  60  40  60  30  60
Evergreen   73  94  74  95  73  93  73  94 /  40  70  30  60  20  50  10  50
Waynesboro  73  94  73  95  71  96  73  94 /  30  70  20  50  10  50  10  50
Camden      73  94  73  93  72  93  73  94 /  30  70  30  50  10  50  10  40
Crestview   75  94  75  96  74  93  74  94 /  30  70  40  60  20  50  20  50

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk from late tonight through Sunday evening
     for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk from late tonight through Sunday evening
     for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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