205
AWUS01 KWNH 030006
FFGMPD
NMZ000-AZZ000-030515-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0544
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
805 PM EDT Tue Jul 02 2024

Areas affected...Southeast AZ...Southwest to East-Central NM...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 030005Z - 030515Z

SUMMARY...Larger clusters of monsoon convection continue to
propagate/seek out remaining unstable pockets.  Cell
mergers/collisions resulting in quick 1-2" totals likely to result
in widely scattered and localized flash flooding conditions
through early overnight period.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E satellite loops shows broad area of monsoon
activity across Southeast AZ into central NM and downstream into
the southern High Plains.  Earlier instability maxima near central
Catron county has diminished but producing clusters of convection
along its periphery, generally concentrated along the southern and
eastern edges.  Proximity to the distant right entrance to the 3H
50-70kt jet streak over CO and latent heat release has supported a
weak mid-level wave development across this area while supporting
solid evacuation of cells for moderately organized monsoonal
clusters.  There remain some pockets of untapped instability
across SE AZ, SW NM and portions of eastern NM, outflow from the
clusters will congeal/collide and result in a few more clusters to
develop.  Deep moisture of 1.25-1.5" along the southern boarder
should make rainfall rates a tad higher across these areas at
1-1.5"/hr resulting in spots of of 1-2" totals.

Areas into the high plains will see stronger moisture flux
convergence in proximity to sagging frontal zone across the TX
panhandle, given 15-20kts of sfc to 700mb confluence.  This may
result in convergence and similar 1-1.5"/hr rates even though
moisture is slightly reduced through depth in E NM.  Additionally,
this confluence will cross the lower FFG areas in San
Miguel/Torrance and Guadalupe counties locally increasing
potential for spotty flash flooding there as well.  All
considered. Flash flooding incidents are still considered possible
though overall coverage should diminish to more widely scattered
than earlier this afternoon to evening and near zero a hour or so
after sunset and remaining pockets of unstable air, start to
stabilize.

Gallina

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...CBRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   35690544 35690450 35530360 35080307 34430340
            33980399 33430486 32740537 32290609 31450781
            31210901 31191018 31391097 32331142 33320998
            34140897 35050814 35470705