Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
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480 FXUS63 KOAX 210444 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 1144 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - At least small storm chances nearly every day through the middle of next week. Severe weather will be possible at times. The highest chances are currently this evening and Friday evening in portions of northeast Nebraska and west- central Iowa. - The most likely dry days will be Sunday and Monday, but still a 10-20 percent chance of spotty storms. - Gradually warming temperatures through the weekend into early next week. Heat indices approaching 100 to 110 on Monday and possibly Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 326 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Showers and storms continued near and north of the NE/SD border within warm air advection and on the nose of some low level moisture transport. To the south, a warm front was pushing northward through the area and may help lead to some additional spotty shower and storm development this afternoon before it sets up near the NE/SD border tonight. In addition, we`ll have to watch storms currently forming over WY and western NE as they push east and approach northeast NE toward midnight. However, latest guidance suggests it will weaken as it gets here with storms largely remaining to our north along the front and nose of stronger moisture transport. That said, do want to point out that these storms will be capable of repeated rounds of heavy rain leading to flooding with precipitable water values approaching 2 inches and it wouldn`t take much of a shift south for that to end up in Knox/Cedar counties. The front will remain pretty stationary through Friday with persistent moisture transport pointing into it and leading to continued showers and storms through the day and especially the evening as said moisture transport strengthens further. Should be plenty of instability for some stronger storms and while shear remains on the low to moderate side, there could be just enough for a few organized severe storms. At this time, once again the highest threat looks to stay just north of the NE/SD border, but again it wouldn`t take much of a shift for portions of northeast NE to see a threat. For Saturday, the front looks to finally push southeast as a cold front and should lead to yet another round of showers and storms. Still some differences on timing of the front, with latest guidance suggesting the highest storm chances will be just to our south and east, but still could see a few storms develop over far southeast NE and far southwest IA by early to mid afternoon. If the front slows at all, more of the area would see a threat for storms, some potentially severe with a juicy airmass remaining in place and at least a little deep layer shear for storm organization. Once again, these could produce heavy rain with precipitable water values on either side of 2 inches, but the good news from a flooding standpoint is that this front looks like it should be pretty progressive in getting through. Surface high pressure will build in behind the front and lead to some mostly, but not completely, dry time for Sunday into Monday. A surface boundary does look like it could edge eastward into the both Sunday evening and Monday evening. Attention then turns to a stronger front pushing through Tuesday which could lead to a little bit more widespread storm coverage, though timing will play a large role in how that pans out and how much of our area could see impacts. Beyond that, expect continued shower and storm chances each day with plenty of daytime heating and occasional weak boundaries and weak shortwaves passing through. Last, but certainly not least, we will be warming back up into the upper 80s and 90s starting Friday and lasting through at least Tuesday. Humidity will also be building with dewpoints in the mid 60s to lower 70s. Monday looks like it`ll be the warmest day with widespread heat index values over 100 and some places reaching the 105 to 110 range. Tuesday could be similar in portions of southeast NE and southwest IA depending on when the aforementioned cold front slides through that day. So overall we`re looking at a continued warm and somewhat active pattern. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1135 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Shower and storms in north-central Nebraska have continued to struggled to move eastward, with the best chances for any showers and storms to approach KOFK will be from 08-10z in the form of a ragged cluster of storms with weak winds and spotty lightning. Aside from those rain chances, winds will continue shifting southerly with gusts returning after 14z to 20-25 kts peaking during the early afternoon. Towards the end of the TAF period to just beyond, chances are increasing for a stronger line of storms to move in from the west, moving east-southeast after 03z. Timing and location of the line will be subject to chance as the current cluster of storms to the west develops eastward tonight. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...CA AVIATION...Petersen