432
FXUS64 KOHX 240153
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
853 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 839 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

The cold front has cleared Nashville and is now located along the
Plateau where most of our current storm activity is. Mid- level
lapse rates never got too steep today, so most storms stayed
pretty shallow. That continues to be the case with the storms
currently on radar. Looking at the latest meso data around the
area, instability continues to fall behind the cold front. A few
smaller thunderstorms have popped up across the west that are
using the last bit of instability the environment has to offer. Do
not expect those to be of much consequence outside of producing
heavy rain and lightning. As a more stable airmass builds in over
the next few hours, clouds will start to clear and temperatures
are expected to drop into the low 70s overnight. With the recent
rain and clearing skies tonight, patchy dense fog appears likely
overnight as we approach daybreak, especially for those along the
Plateau. High pressure will return to the area tomorrow, meaning
another hot day is in store with highs near 90. Thankfully, dew
point temperatures aren`t expected to be as high as they have
been, thus the "feel like" temperature will be very close to the
actual temperature tomorrow - 90. Hot and dry weather will stick
around with us through Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Sunday Night)
Issued at 1120 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

Radar late this morning shows a weakening line of light rain
showers moving southeastward across northern parts of the
midstate. This activity should continue to weaken over the next
couple of hours as it moves further southeast. However,
additional showers and thunderstorms are expected to form along
any remnant outflow from this activity, as well as along and ahead
of a cold front currently approaching the Ohio River, based on the
latest HRRR model runs. Forecast soundings show MLCAPE peaking in
the 1500-2000 J/Kg range with fairly steep low level lapse rates
and PWATs rising to around the 2 inch mark. These parameters are
favorable for a few storms to produce wet microbursts with
potential of damaging winds and maybe some small hail. However,
mid level lapse rates will be very weak around 5.5 C/km or less
with deep layer shear also weak at 25 knots, which should help
keep the strong to severe storm threat isolated. SPC continues to
highlight our area in a marginal risk for severe storms today
which seems reasonable. Cloud cover and precip will keep temps
down a degree or two from yesterday`s readings, especially across
our northwest counties, but it will still get quite hot with highs
reaching around 90 on the Plateau and mid to upper 90s elsewhere.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Sunday)
Issued at 1120 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

Front will pass through the area tonight with a drier and
slightly cooler airmass filtering in behind the boundary for
Monday, with highs a couple degrees lower than today. However, we
will heat right back up on Tuesday as upper ridging builds back
in aloft, with highs in the 90s anticipated for nearly everyone
once again. A much stronger upper level trough and associated cold
front is shown by guidance to dig southward out of the Great
Lakes on Wednesday into Wednesday night, bringing our best chance
for showers and storms over the next week with high chance to
likely pops. Forecast soundings for Wednesday show weak MLCAPE for
late June between 1000-1500 J/Kg, but also show a bit stronger
deep layer shear and slightly steeper lapse rates than we will see
today, along with considerable dry air aloft and DCAPE over 1000
J/Kg. Therefore, a few strong to severe storms with damaging
microbursts winds and small hail appear possible once again, and
I`d expect SPC to highlight our area in marginal risk on their new
Day 3 outlook tonight.

After the wet Wednesday, we dry out again for Thursday but will
also see much cooler temperatures in the wake of the front pushing
through with highs only in the mid 80s to low 90s. Unfortunately,
this "cooldown" will be short-lived as an H5 ridge strengthens
significantly across the southern Plains into the Southeast with
heights rising to around 597dm. This will cause temps to soar back
into the mid to upper 90s west of the Plateau, and a few
locations could hit the 100 degree mark. 12Z guidance differs next
weekend on timing and how far south a front makes it into our
area, but due to the strength of the upper ridge forecast it will
likely struggle to make much headway into the midstate.
Nevertheless, pops will be on the increase by late weekend with
temperatures potentially "cooling" back down somewhat again.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 610 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

A few remaining showers and thunderstorms will move east of I-65
through 03Z. These will mainly affect KSRB and KCSV. The gusty
afternoon winds will subside and turn more northerly overnight as
an upper level cold front passes through middle TN. VFR conditions
expected outside of any brief thunderstorms at SRB and CSV. With
winds going close to calm overnight there could be some patchy river
fog...especially over the Plateau. VFR skies tomorrow with
northerly winds 10 kts or less.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      72  92  70  98 /  20   0   0   0
Clarksville    69  91  69  96 /  10   0   0  10
Crossville     66  84  59  89 /  70   0   0   0
Columbia       70  94  67  98 /  20   0   0   0
Cookeville     67  85  63  91 /  60   0   0   0
Jamestown      67  83  61  90 /  60   0   0   0
Lawrenceburg   69  92  66  96 /  30   0   0   0
Murfreesboro   70  92  66  97 /  40   0   0   0
Waverly        69  92  69  97 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE.......Baggett
SHORT TERM...Shamburger
LONG TERM....Shamburger
AVIATION.....12