702
FXUS64 KOHX 010158
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
858 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 855 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

Quiet evening so far across the mid state, with radar showing some
light showers off to our west moving towards the area. Chances for
rain will increase from west to east this evening and especially
overnight, mainly for areas west of the Plateau. Added minor
adjustments to pops to account for latest guidance, otherwise
forecast remains on track.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Saturday)
Issued at 1144 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024

Visible satellite imagery this morning shows thick cirrus cloud
cover which has held temperatures down into the mid 60s on the
Plateau and the 70s elsewhere. However, this cloud cover is
shifting eastward, and enough sunshine is anticipated this
afternoon to allow highs to reach the 70s and 80s. Low level
moisture has also begun increasing with dewpoints up into the low
60s across our southwest, and this may be enough for a few showers
to pop up by late afternoon into the evening in that area.
However, bulk of rain will arrive overnight and spread eastward
across the midstate through Saturday morning as an upper level
trough shifts eastward from the southern Plains. Activity will
become more scattered by Saturday afternoon/evening, with highest
pops over the west and lowest in the east. Clouds/precip will keep
temperatures down significantly tomorrow, with highs only in the
70s. Forecast soundings for Saturday show unusually strong low
and deep layer shear for early June, but little or no instability,
so our already low severe threat for tomorrow appears even lower
than previous. However, if more instability develops than models
indicate, a strong to possible severe storm could occur during the
day, with a damaging wind or even low-end tornado threat possible
due to the intense low level shear.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday Night through next Friday)
Issued at 1144 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024

Widely scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will remain
possible around the clock from Saturday night through Tuesday as
weak zonal flow continues aloft and embedded shortwaves move
across the region. Pops will be in the slight to low chance
category during this timeframe as nothing major is apparent, with
temperatures near normal with highs in the 70s/80s and lows in the
60s. By Wednesday into Thursday, a strong upper level trough will
approach from the northwest, bringing more widespread showers and
storms and higher precip chances. In addition, GFS forecasts
PWATs to rise to near the 2 inch mark, indicating potential for
locally heavy rain and some flooding. 12Z guidance continues to
show a cold front moving across the midstate Thursday afternoon,
with cooler and dry weather returning for the end of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 608 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

Showers will impact the terminals from west to east starting at
CKV after 07z. Conditions will remain VFR at the terminals at the
onset of the showers but cigs will deteriorate to MVFR and then
IFR except at CSV which will likely remain VFR. Cigs will vary
from VFR to as low as IFR depending on the intensity of the shower
activity. There could be enough instability in place from mid
afternoon onward for a storm to impact CKV/BNA/MQY so a tempo
group was included. Winds will be out of the ESE/SE through the
taf period and will increase after 06z closer to 10 kts. Some
gusts up to 20-25 kts will be possible from the morning onward
especially at BNA/MQY/CKV.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      64  74  66  83 /  60  90  70  40
Clarksville    63  72  65  81 /  80  90  50  20
Crossville     57  70  58  75 /  10  60  70  60
Columbia       62  74  64  82 /  80  90  70  40
Cookeville     62  71  61  77 /  20  80  70  50
Jamestown      59  72  58  76 /  10  60  70  50
Lawrenceburg   62  72  64  81 /  90  90  70  40
Murfreesboro   63  75  63  83 /  50  80  70  40
Waverly        63  74  65  82 /  90  90  60  30

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE.......Barnwell
SHORT TERM...Shamburger
LONG TERM....Shamburger
AVIATION.....Reagan