061
FXUS64 KOHX 220659
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
159 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 151 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

A few clouds are roaming around out there at forecast time and while
things are quiet now, there is at least some indication from the
last few runs of the HRRR that we may not stay that way all night.
I`m going to add in a 10 PoP for the potential of some showers
before sunrise around the Metro area and up to the KY state line. If
they happen, they likely won`t be of much consequence, but I wanted
to throw in a tiny chance. Outside of that, some patchy fog will be
possible in the typical spots, like we`ve seen the last few mornings.

The heat continues today, however there`s a little wrench in the
plans. I do not think this is going to be widespread, but with the
latest run of the HREF, on top of multiple extended runs of the
HRRR, I`m going to include a 20 PoP for the eastern half of the mid-
state this afternoon. The biggest question will be how far east the
capping inversion will stretch. The western 1/3 of Middle TN should
remain dry, but we`ll have to see if we can get at least similar
conditions to yesterday. Will they just be pinhead showers or can
we get some convection going? In either case, I think a small
measurable PoP is warranted. If we do see some convection, typical
summertime concerns will be possible: heavy rain, lots of
lightning and gusty winds. If you have outdoor plans, just remain
weather aware. As far as the heat goes, expect low triple digit
heat index values west of the Cumberland Plateau again this
afternoon (and really, most of this forecast).

Our next best chance of rain moves into the area tomorrow. As we`ve
been talking about the last several days, a frontal boundary is
expected make its way into the mid-state tomorrow afternoon. With
the heat and humidity leading to plenty of instability already in
place, the addition of a source of lift should spark convection
from the afternoon, lasting into the overnight hours, as well as
Monday morning (especially south of I-40). I don`t think the
overnight hours will cause any issues, but during the heat of the
day, we`ll run the risk of some damaging gusty winds and heavy
rainfall. In fact, with creeping towards 1.9 inches, heavy
rainfall is expected with any of these storms, even into the
overnight hours.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday Night through next Saturday)
Issued at 151 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

For those of you who haven`t seen much rain lately, if you don`t get
it Sunday, hang tight. Latest extended guidance it looking better
for giving the garden hoses a break. At least some rain chances will
stick around through Monday night, but by Tuesday afternoon/evening
better storm chances arrive. Helped along by unseasonable synoptic
support, scattered to numerous storms will be possible right
through Wednesday and Wednesday night. Forecast soundings look a
little better through this time frame than they did last night,
with 6+ deg/Km lapse rates and plenty of instability in the area.
Along with PWs increasing to over 2 inches, gusty winds and heavy
rains will both be possible again.

If you`re over the heat, sorry. It`s summer. However, we should fall
back to seasonal temperatures with Wednesday`s rain and frontal
boundary passage at least for a day or two next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1235 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

A broad area of high pressure covers Middle Tennessee at the
surface and aloft. Thus, we will continue with VFR TAFs and
light/calm winds for at least the next 24 hrs.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      97  75  95  75 /  20  20  40  40
Clarksville    94  73  92  72 /  10  10  30  20
Crossville     88  67  88  68 /  20  20  50  60
Columbia       95  71  96  73 /  20  20  40  40
Cookeville     90  70  90  70 /  20  20  50  50
Jamestown      89  70  88  68 /  20  20  50  60
Lawrenceburg   94  71  95  73 /  20  20  30  40
Murfreesboro   96  72  96  73 /  20  20  40  50
Waverly        94  72  93  72 /  10  10  30  30

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Unger
LONG TERM....Unger
AVIATION.....Rose