565
FXUS64 KOHX 210536
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1236 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 912 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

Only concerns for the overnight period will be some patchy fog
across western TN into some of our western mid state counties.
Tover values are closer to zero across these areas so some
formation cannot be ruled out. Otherwise, sky grids still elude
toward a partial increase in clouds through 12Z. Satellite imagery
does concur as we see some mid and upper level moisture upstream.
Otherwise, temperatures still look to be on track with lows in the
60s area wide by 12Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Saturday)
Issued at 1158 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

Not much change here from previous forecast reasoning and previous
issuances of early morning suite of forecast products with dry
conditions due to ridging influences still "As far as the eye can
see" prevailing across mid state region through Saturday
afternoon. Let`s visit the meaning of the slogan "Wash, Rinse,
Repeat" for both highs for this afternoon and Saturday afternoon,
or if you prefer, the term "Carbon Copy." Highs today and Saturday
both will range in low to mid 90s, upper 80s to around 90 for
locations west of Cumberland Plateau Region. With forecasted
slightly warmer afternoon humidity values, especially on Saturday
afternoon, some isolated locations west of Cumberland Plateau
Region could approach heat index value wise around 100 degrees.
Lows tonight will continue the seasonably mild trend of late and
potentially be a little warmer than those even experienced this
morning, ranging thru the 60s. With strong upper level ridging
influences in place along with forecasted little cloudiness, not
much wind, and favorable dewpoint depressions, strong indications
that patchy fog formation will once again occur, mainly for
locations around and west of I-65 Corridor Region.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday Night through next Friday)
Issued at 1158 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

The continuation of dominance in atmospheric ridging influences
will continue lows and highs along with patchy fog chances in
similar categories and locations both Saturday Night and Sunday
Night with highs almost identical to those experienced today and
Saturday once again on Sunday. After Monday with highs slightly
cooler ranging upper 80s to lower 90s, mid 80s Cumberland Plateau
Region, a more of an unsettled weather pattern will come in play
as next work week progresses with generally isolated/scattered
showers and potentially thunderstorms also. Total rainfall amounts
continue to look light, generally less than 0.50." Temperatures
will slowly cool down closer to seasonal values as second half of
next work week progresses. As for Friday, latest GFS solution has
"a quite interesting" weather pattern depicted across eastern
half of CONUS as Friday progresses. Actual right model solution
quandaries in abundance with this double closed surface/upper
level stacked low pressure centers depicted in weather pattern
across eastern CONUS in this present GFS model run. So I believe
best thing here is to let some additional GFS and ECMWF model runs
occur before diving into some consistency of an agreed upon
weather pattern across eastern CONUS late next work week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1236 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

At BNA...VFR conditions expected over the next 24 hours. Calm
winds will give way to light west/southwest winds during the
afternoon. Only cloud cover will be high level cirrus moving in
from the northwest.

For all other TAF sites...VFR conditions are expected to prevail
over the next 24 hours. The one potential issue will be fog this
morning, but based on current trends and temp/dewpoint spreads,
only felt confident enough to put fog in the TAF for KSRB. Issued
a TAF with MVFR vis at KSRB, and VFR at all other sites. Will be
monitoring for fog development. Calm winds overnight will give way
to light west/southwest winds by late morning into the afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      94  71  93  72 /  10  10  10  10
Clarksville    92  70  91  69 /  20  10  20  20
Crossville     88  63  88  63 /  10   0  10  10
Columbia       93  69  93  68 /  10  10  10  10
Cookeville     89  66  89  67 /  10  10  10  10
Jamestown      87  65  87  66 /  10   0  20  10
Lawrenceburg   93  68  92  67 /  10  10  10  10
Murfreesboro   94  69  93  69 /  10  10  10  10
Waverly        91  69  91  69 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE.......21
SHORT TERM...Mueller
LONG TERM....Mueller
AVIATION.....Husted