727
FXUS66 KOTX 291744
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1044 AM PDT Sat Jun 29 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
It will be mild today with filtered sunshine. With the arrival of
a upper level disturbance, expect an increasing threat of showers
and thunderstorms in the Cascades this afternoon and evening, and
then spreading into eastern WA into north Idaho overnight. Winds
will be breezy by Sunday afternoon with a renewed chance of
showers and thunderstorms for northeast Washington and north
Idaho. Mountain showers and seasonal temperatures continue
through early next week, followed by drier and warmer by the end
of the work week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today and tomorrow: Expecting a mild day with high temperatures in
the 80s with lots of mid and high level clouds moving through the
region. There is a small chance of thunderstorms (20%) later this
afternoon in the Cascades. Models continue to show a 20-40% chance
of overnight showers and thunderstorms in Southeast Washington and
the central Idaho Panhandle overnight into Sunday. There is a
greater chance of showers and thunderstorms Sunday afternoon (40-80%
chance) north and east of the Columbia Basin with the best chances
in Pend Oreille/Boundary Counties. Thunderstorms Sunday will be
capable of frequent lightning, small hail, and gusty outflow winds.
/Butler

Monday through Friday: Breezy winds are expected Monday and Monday
night, with gusts up to 30 mph across the Waterville Plateau and
upper Columbia Basin. Early week showers and thunderstorms will
also be possible over northeastern WA and the the northern ID
Panhandle.

Expect near normal daytime temperatures through Wednesday, with a
warming and drying trend anticipated for Thursday and Friday. /KD

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Mid and high level clouds with ceilings at or above 10
thousand feet will continue across the TAF sites through the
period with VFR conditions and light winds with speeds under 10kt.
Cumulus over the north central mountains will give way to a
30-50% of showers with 15% of thunderstorms between 22z-09z, then
a second band of elevated showers creeps across the Palouse,
KGEG-KCOE area into north Idaho between 09z-15z with the threat of
light showers and a less than 10% of lightning. Showers (50-60%) linger
over the Idaho Panhandle through 18z. /rfox.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
High confidence in VFR conditions at our airport through the
period. General aviation pilots will need to monitor radar for
showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. There is a
low chance of thunderstorms this evening and overnight at the TAF
sites. /rfox.

-----------------------

Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports,
please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage:
https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        83  59  81  55  80  53 /  10  20  40  10  10   0
Coeur d`Alene  81  58  77  53  76  52 /  10  50  50  10  20  10
Pullman        80  56  77  52  75  50 /  10  50  30   0   0   0
Lewiston       89  65  87  61  85  59 /  10  50  30   0   0   0
Colville       80  50  75  45  77  45 /  10  30  80  30  40  10
Sandpoint      78  55  72  50  72  50 /  10  30  80  40  50  20
Kellogg        78  60  73  55  72  55 /  10  60  70  20  20  10
Moses Lake     86  60  86  55  85  53 /  10  10   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      83  62  82  60  80  57 /  20  30   0   0   0   0
Omak           86  60  85  55  84  55 /  10  30  30   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$