Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Spokane, WA
Issued by NWS Spokane, WA
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731 FXUS66 KOTX 290447 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 947 PM PDT Fri Jun 28 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Mild and mostly dry weather on Friday will be followed by warmer temperatures Saturday. The next system will arrive Sunday producing breezy winds and the chance for showers and thunderstorms. Mountain showers and seasonal temperatures will continue through early next week. The forecast will trend warmer and drier by the middle to the end of next week. && .DISCUSSION... The forecast for Saturday night into Sunday morning has been updated to increase precipitation chances across southeast Washington into the central and southern Idaho Panhandle. The evening runs of the GFS and NAM have increased nocturnal showers ahead of Sunday`s cold front. Elevated instability is limited, but HREF members generate enough simulated reflectivity to include a 10 to 20 percent chance of thunderstorms between midnight and 5 AM across the Palouse into Shoshone county. High temperatures have also trended down a couple degrees on the National Blend of Models across north Idaho and the eastern third of Washington. The trend is supported by 00z GFS and NAM MOS, so this trend has also been included in the update for Sunday. /GKoch && .AVIATION... 06Z TAFS: Bands of mid and high clouds will increase overnight with ceilings at or above 10 thousand feet. Surface winds through 00z Sunday will mainly be less than 10kts region-wide. There will be a 30 percent chance of showers over the north Cascades between 20-06z. As convection spreads east of the mountains, airports that will have a chance of brief downpours and outflow gusts to 30kts will be Wenatchee, Chelan, Methow Valley in Winthrop, and Omak. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence in VFR conditions at our airport through 00z. General aviation pilots will need to monitor radar for showers and thunderstorms after 00z Sunday around the Methow Valley, Leavenworth, Chelan, and Omak. /GK ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Spokane 56 83 59 80 55 81 / 0 10 30 30 0 10 Coeur d`Alene 55 81 58 76 54 77 / 0 10 40 30 10 20 Pullman 52 81 56 77 52 76 / 0 0 50 40 0 0 Lewiston 60 90 66 86 61 86 / 0 0 50 40 0 0 Colville 48 80 50 76 45 78 / 0 10 30 80 20 30 Sandpoint 51 78 55 72 51 74 / 0 10 40 80 20 40 Kellogg 56 78 60 73 55 72 / 0 10 50 70 10 20 Moses Lake 59 86 60 86 55 86 / 0 10 10 10 0 0 Wenatchee 64 83 62 82 60 81 / 0 10 20 0 0 0 Omak 59 86 60 85 55 85 / 0 10 30 30 0 0 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. WA...None. && $$