633
FXUS64 KOUN 281004
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
504 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 244 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

Showers and occasional thunderstorms will linger for the next
several hours across northern Oklahoma but are expected to gradually
dissipate and/or move east of our area toward sunrise. The main
story for today will continue to be the potentially dangerous heat,
with air temperatures near or over 100 degrees and heat indices
of 105-115 expected. Storms will once again be possible across far
northern Oklahoma this evening and overnight as a cold front
approaches the area, but the bulk of the activity is expected to
be to our north. The stronger storms will be capable of large hail
and damaging wind gusts.

Ware

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 244 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

Hot temperatures will continue into the weekend but the
aforementioned cold front could bring with it increased rain chances
and cloudiness across at least the northern third to half of
Oklahoma, along with a (brief) reprieve from the oppressive heat.
Shower and storm chances appear highest Saturday evening and overnight
along the front for these areas, but could linger into the day on
Sunday. Temperatures on Sunday will be lower north of the
boundary, but high humidity will keep heat indices near 90-100
degrees. Heat indices to the south of the front will be hotter,
but not as hot as they have been, near 105 degrees.

The center of the mid-upper ridge will begin to translate eastward
on Monday, with the front retreating quickly north of our area. This
will lead to a return of very hot temperatures to the region
Monday. The ridge will begin to position itself even further
eastward by Tuesday and Wednesday, which could open the door to
another cold front and rain chances toward the middle of next
week. Ensemble guidance then suggests we could see a bit of a
pattern shift toward the end of next week, with higher heights
across the western US and more troughing across the central and
eastern US. This could allow for slightly cooler temperatures and
additional rain chances during this period.

Ware

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 504 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

Showers are moving out of the area, and are expected to be out of
the KPNC vicinity before 12Z. The high clouds will decrease
through the day, but without a category change or significant
chance in the winds, the TAFs will generally keep the BKN250 that
will prevail at the start of the forecast period. Some additional
showers and storms will be possible at KWWR and in northwest
Oklahoma tonight.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 101  81  99  76 /   0  10  20  40
Hobart OK        104  80 101  77 /   0  10  10  40
Wichita Falls TX 104  80 101  79 /   0   0   0  10
Gage OK          104  74  97  69 /  20  30  20  60
Ponca City OK    103  80  98  70 /  10  20  30  60
Durant OK         99  78  98  78 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM CDT this evening
     for OKZ004>007-009>012-014>018-021>024-027-033>038-044.

     Excessive Heat Warning from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM CDT this
     evening for OKZ008-013-019-020-025-026-028>032-039>043-
     045>048-050>052.

TX...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM CDT this evening
     for TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...26