Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
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040 FXUS64 KOUN 241743 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 1243 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Tuesday) Issued at 954 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Updated our POPs and WX grids for isolated rain showers across central Oklahoma for the next couple of hours. Although instability is fairly weak, it may be sufficient for a few lightning strikes. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 250 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Heat advisory will be issued for Tuesday across the entire forecast area, with an anticipated increase in dewpoints and hotter temperatures ahead of a late day/evening frontal boundary. Given some of the latest probability guidance on dewpoints, an excessive heat warning (sufficient area/duration of >110F heat indices) will be possible across central/north central Oklahoma as dewpoints pool south of the front. This will be a call in the coming couple of shifts, but will cover the hazard with an advisory for now. The issuance of heat advisories through Saturday appear likely, and an excessive heat warning for at least a portion of the forecast area cannot be ruled out. The hottest day is still looking to be Friday with veered flow and lower level thermal ridge ahead of another approaching frontal boundary. There still appears to be convective potential in the coming week. The first main episode will be Tuesday evening through Wednesday morning associated with a weak cold front that is forecast move over the northern half of Oklahoma. Highest chances for storms will be across north central portions of Oklahoma. Damaging wind gusts appear possible with the storms across far northern Oklahoma Tuesday evening. Temperatures behind the this front could average 5 to 10 degrees less hot for Wednesday into Thursday, but dewpoints will likely be higher, especially on Thursday. While portions of north central Oklahoma could see a reprieve from advisory level heat indices, it will still be uncomfortable with moderate to high risk WBGT levels. Another cold front is still progd to approach the region next weekend, providing the next main opportunity for scattered showers and storms, along with a brief and slight cool down. Model trends are to spread the mid and upper level ridge back to the east by this time, decreasing the northwesterly flow that will help steer the front into Oklahoma earlier in the week. This will yield somewhat low confidence that the front would make it much farther south than northern/northeast Oklahoma. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1236 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 All of our terminals should remain under VFR conditions through the forecast period. Scattered light rain moving across northern Oklahoma could pass over a couple of our terminals through 20Z, mainly KWWR and KSWO. A surface low moving across the U.S. Northern Plains will maintain a southerly surface wind direction with any current gusts expected to diminish after 01Z as winds back south- southeast. Wind gusts will increase by late morning mixing around 16Z and winds veer south-southwest. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 98 78 99 76 / 20 0 10 20 Hobart OK 100 78 101 76 / 10 0 10 10 Wichita Falls TX 99 79 100 79 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 101 76 104 71 / 10 0 20 20 Ponca City OK 102 78 101 73 / 10 0 30 30 Durant OK 98 78 98 78 / 0 0 10 10 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Tuesday for OKZ004>048- 050>052. Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ005>008-011>013- 017>020-024>032-039>043-045>048-050>052. TX...Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Tuesday for TXZ083>090. && $$ SHORT TERM...68 LONG TERM....11 AVIATION...68