Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
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084 FXUS64 KOUN 290857 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 357 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 357 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 The heat continues. Temperatures will be in the upper 90s into triple digits with the heat index values expected to maximize from near 105 in the northwest where dewpoints will be lower, to near or just above 110 across the eastern two thirds of the area. The NBM populated with dewpoints on the high side of the guidance envelope and given trends of the last few days it makes sense to keep them on the high side of guidance, at least in the eastern two thirds of the forecast area. Moisture may be a little shallower in the west allowing more mixing out of dewpoints there. The Excessive Heat Warning area still looks good this morning in highlighting the areas where the heat index is expected to be near or above 110 degrees, and no changes are planned to the heat headlines. There are some storms in Kansas that we are watching this morning. The showers and storms in western Kansas north of the cold front are expected to remain north, although outflow enhancement may effectively push the cold front south into the area early before it slows down. The showers/storms in southeastern Kansas had tried to develop westward toward Wichita, but the western area was not persistent. It is not out of the question that some of this development could work toward our northeastern zones, but the chances look to be below 20 percent right now, although we will continue to watch radar and satellite trends. The more likely shower/storm development is expected late this afternoon across northern Oklahoma in the vicinity of the cold front working down from Kansas. There is enough instability to support some strong and potentially severe storms late this afternoon and through the evening and SPC`s marginal risk describes this area well. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Friday) Issued at 357 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Showers and storms will still be possible Sunday as the front continues to slowly move through the area. High temperatures tomorrow will be closer to climatological average across the northern two-thirds of the area as this somewhat cooler (well, at least not as hot) air moves into the area. But the front currently looks to be slow enough that hot temperatures in the upper 90s and heat index values between 105 and 110 are still likely in southern Oklahoma and north Texas tomorrow afternoon. But any relief we get from this front will be short lived as southerly flow redevelops and pushes this not-as-hot airmass back north out of the area. The upper ridge builds over the southern Plains early this week, but then shifts eastward later in the week. As it shifts east, this may allow somewhat higher precipitation chances and potentially cooler temperatures late in the week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1014 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 VFR ceilings with some mid and high clouds. Winds will generally be from the S and SE overnight then becoming S to SW Saturday although winds will shift towards the NE in parts of the area as a boundary moves into the area Saturday. Showers/storms will be possible Saturday afternoon and evening. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 100 75 91 75 / 10 30 40 10 Hobart OK 102 77 96 77 / 10 20 30 10 Wichita Falls TX 101 80 98 79 / 0 10 10 0 Gage OK 98 68 89 72 / 30 60 30 10 Ponca City OK 99 70 84 71 / 30 60 30 10 Durant OK 98 79 96 77 / 0 10 20 10 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ004>006-009>011-014>017-021-022-033>037. Excessive Heat Warning from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ007-008-012-013-018>020-023>032-038>048- 050>052. TX...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ083>085-087-088. Excessive Heat Warning from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ086-089-090. && $$ SHORT TERM...26 LONG TERM....26 AVIATION...25