061
FXUS64 KOUN 291706
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1206 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 357 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

The heat continues. Temperatures will be in the upper 90s into
triple digits with the heat index values expected to maximize from
near 105 in the northwest where dewpoints will be lower, to near
or just above 110 across the eastern two thirds of the area. The
NBM populated with dewpoints on the high side of the guidance
envelope and given trends of the last few days it makes sense to
keep them on the high side of guidance, at least in the eastern
two thirds of the forecast area. Moisture may be a little
shallower in the west allowing more mixing out of dewpoints there.
The Excessive Heat Warning area still looks good this morning in
highlighting the areas where the heat index is expected to be near
or above 110 degrees, and no changes are planned to the heat
headlines.

There are some storms in Kansas that we are watching this morning.
The showers and storms in western Kansas north of the cold front
are expected to remain north, although outflow enhancement may
effectively push the cold front south into the area early before
it slows down. The showers/storms in southeastern Kansas had
tried to develop westward toward Wichita, but the western area was
not persistent. It is not out of the question that some of this
development could work toward our northeastern zones, but the
chances look to be below 20 percent right now, although we will
continue to watch radar and satellite trends.

The more likely shower/storm development is expected late this
afternoon across northern Oklahoma in the vicinity of the cold
front working down from Kansas. There is enough instability to
support some strong and potentially severe storms late this
afternoon and through the evening and SPC`s marginal risk
describes this area well.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 357 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

Showers and storms will still be possible Sunday as the front
continues to slowly move through the area. High temperatures
tomorrow will be closer to climatological average across the
northern two-thirds of the area as this somewhat cooler (well, at
least not as hot) air moves into the area. But the front currently
looks to be slow enough that hot temperatures in the upper 90s and
heat index values between 105 and 110 are still likely in southern
Oklahoma and north Texas tomorrow afternoon. But any relief we get
from this front will be short lived as southerly flow redevelops
and pushes this not-as-hot airmass back north out of the area.

The upper ridge builds over the southern Plains early this week,
but then shifts eastward later in the week. As it shifts east,
this may allow somewhat higher precipitation chances and
potentially cooler temperatures late in the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1157 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

Will keep things VFR for now, although low chance to see some MVFR
ceilings late tonight across the north.

Otherwise, a weak cold front across far northwest Oklahoma will
gradually shift south and east this afternoon and tonight. This
boundary will be the focus for some late afternoon and evening
storms that may impact TAF sites across northern into central
sections of Oklahoma. South to southeast winds will continue to
the south of the front, while to the north of the boundary the
winds will shift to the east/northeast.

Have also included the potential for a period of storms late
tonight into Sunday morning across north central Oklahoma as there
appears the chance for storms across Kansas to move southward into
the area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 100  75  91  75 /  20  30  40  10
Hobart OK        102  77  96  77 /  10  20  30  10
Wichita Falls TX 101  80  98  79 /   0  10  10   0
Gage OK           98  68  89  72 /  30  60  30  10
Ponca City OK     99  70  84  71 /  30  60  30  10
Durant OK         98  79  96  77 /   0  10  20  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ004>006-009>011-
     014>017-021-022-033>037.

     Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ007-
     008-012-013-018>020-023>032-038>048-050>052.

TX...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ083>085-087-088.

     Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ086-
     089-090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...30