069
FXUS64 KOUN 292011
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
311 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 246 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

As of 9AM this morning, the surface analysis showed a weak
surface low over the TX panhandle with a stationary front
extending across northwest Oklahoma and a reinforcing cold front
from north-central to southwest Kansas. The stationary front has
moved very slowly into northern Oklahoma this afternoon. The 2PM
analysis now places the stationary front from near Arnett to
Medford, and this boundary will be the focal zone for thunderstorm
development later this afternoon and evening. Strong to damaging
wind gusts (60 to 70 mph) with storm downbursts along with some
hail (though a lesser concern) possible. Abundant moisture content
present and well-above average PWAT values will allow for efficient
and heavy rainfall. Depending on how long storms linger over a
particular area, locally-heavy rainfall could pose a flash- flood
risk.

Storm chances continue overnight, especially across northern
Oklahoma, to account for remnant activity exiting the high plains
(though this is looking less likely as the afternoon wears on).

Momentum from the reinforcing cold front, along cold pools resulting
from thunderstorms, should push the stationary boundary towards
central oklahoma very gradually this evening into tonight. This
boundary lingers near, or within reach of the I-40 corridor
tomorrow and thunderstorm redevelopment is possible along this
boundary on Sunday afternoon and evening. Storm activity should be
diurnally- driven, and thus, dissipate by tomorrow evening.
Strong wind gusts, locally heavy rainfall are the main concerns
with any storms that develop on Sunday.

Many areas along/north of I-40 will see a brief reprieve from the
heat tomorrow. High temperatures for far northern Oklahoma could
only rise into the low/mid-80`s with upper 80`s and low 90`s
across central Oklahoma. With low to medium confidence (30-50%) of
heat index values reaching 105 deg F in southern counties, an
advisory was not issued.

Thompson

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 246 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

The ridge remains centered over the southern plains into next
week with well-above average temperatures (both max/min) through
at least Thursday. A northern stream trough reaches the Pacific
northwest on Sunday and advances steadily across southern Canada
and the northern CONUS. The associated cold front potentially
moves into Oklahoma mid-week, but may only bring somewhat lower
temperatures to northwest Oklahoma on Wednesday. Rain/storm
chances return for a portion of NW/N Oklahoma late Tuesday with
with low POPs continuing over northern OK on Wednesday to account
for the stalled front scenario. Unfortunately, the heat will
return on Monday and persist through Thursday with heat advisory
criteria likely being met daily for some areas.

The upper ridge is prog`d to shift over the southeastern CONUS end
of next week with potentially several northern stream shortwaves
pushing a cold front into the area Thursday night or Friday, along
with a return of rain chances. High temperatures on Friday and
potentially next Saturday appear to be about 10 degrees less than
Thursday - even for our southern counties.

Thompson

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1157 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

Will keep things VFR for now, although low chance to see some MVFR
ceilings late tonight across the north.

Otherwise, a weak cold front across far northwest Oklahoma will
gradually shift south and east this afternoon and tonight. This
boundary will be the focus for some late afternoon and evening
storms that may impact TAF sites across northern into central
sections of Oklahoma. South to southeast winds will continue to
the south of the front, while to the north of the boundary the
winds will shift to the east/northeast.

Have also included the potential for a period of storms late
tonight into Sunday morning across north central Oklahoma as there
appears the chance for storms across Kansas to move southward into
the area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  76  91  75  98 /  30  30  10  10
Hobart OK         78  97  78 101 /  20  20  10   0
Wichita Falls TX  81  99  79 102 /  10  10   0   0
Gage OK           69  86  73 100 /  50  30  10   0
Ponca City OK     70  82  71  97 /  70  40  10  10
Durant OK         80  97  76  97 /  10  20   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ004>006-009>011-
     014>017-021-022-033>037.

     Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ007-
     008-012-013-018>020-023>032-038>048-050>052.

TX...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ083>085-087-088.

     Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ086-
     089-090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...30