853
FXUS64 KOUN 191948
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
248 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 247 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

The shower and thunderstorms that occurred this morning over northwest
into west-central Oklahoma has dissipated, although there is remnant
activity north of the Kansas state line. The associated outflow boundary
has pushed farther south than expected and surface observations and
radar show the boundary currently located from near Quanah to OKC. There
is a slight chance of isolated showers/thunderstorms redeveloping this
afternoon near the outflow boundary and parts of northern Oklahoma.
With the lingering cloud-cover over far northwest Oklahoma, temperatures
have been slower to increase this afternoon, with current readings in
the mid/upper 70`s. The rest of Oklahoma and western north Texas
are seasonable with temperatures in the middle to upper 80`s.

Tropical Storm Alberto has slowed in forward speed some, and is now
expected to make landfall later tonight along the gulf coast of Mexico.
Increased cloud-cover is anticipated as the northern periphery of this
tropical system spreads northwestward this evening and tomorrow, and
there is a low chance (less than 20%) of widely scattered showers
and thunderstorms within these outer bands tomorrow. With scattered
to broken cloud-cover and light to moderate southeasterly winds, high
temperatures will be similar to those seen today.

Thompson

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 247 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

The 598 dam H500 ridge, which is centered over the northeastern CONUS,
begins to retrograde towards the southern plains over the next few days.
This feature reaches our region this weekend and then settles over the
desert southwest beginning of next week. Although the LLTR will be maximized
over the western half of the CONUS, the effects will still be felt here
beginning this weekend. Near-record temperatures (both maximum and warmest
low temperatures) are forecast from Sunday into Tuesday, with the
potential heat wave lasting through end of next week.

Record High Temperatures to be challenged:

      SUNDAY        MONDAY        TUESDAY
OKC (101/1934)    (104/1911)         -
SWO (102/1934)*   (104/1918)*    (104/2009)
SPS (104/2011)         -             -
*Monthly record at SWO (106 on 6/10/06)

Record Warm Low Temperatures to be challenged:
      SUNDAY        MONDAY       TUESDAY
OKC   (77/1934)    (78/1953)        -
SWO   (81/1960)    (79/2022)    (82/1924)
LAW   (79/1969)    (79/1969)    (80/1969)
SPS       -            -        (82/1953)

Dewpoint temperatures are forecast to remain in the 60`s and possibly
increase into the 70`s towards middle of next week. The heat combined
with the very moist boundary layer could yield uncomfortable heat index
values of 105 to 110 degrees over much of north-central Oklahoma on
Sunday with greater aerial coverage increasing on Monday and Tuesday.

Very hot daytime conditions and warm overnight low temperatures (mid/upper
70`s) could make effective cooling difficult without air conditioning
and adequate hydration. Based on the experimental NWS HeatRisk tool,
there is a Major Risk of heat-related impacts (level 3 out of 4) for
sensitive populations on Sunday with an Extreme Heat Risk (level 4 out
of 4) on Monday and Tuesday. Heat stress can be cumulative, and with
the potential prolonged nature of this heat wave, each additional day
of hot/humid conditions will pose a progressively higher risk to heat-
related illness for vulnerable populations.

For details on the experimental NWS HeatRisk tool, please visit:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heatrisk

Fleeting and low probabilities of shower/storm activity exist for
western and northern Oklahoma Friday into Tuesday.

Thompson

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

An outflow boundary has become nearly stationary early this
afternoon and may impact OKC/SWO with a weak wind shift over
the next hour. Winds behind the outflow should become east
to southeast during the afternoon. Heating and the outflow
boundary may result in isolated showers and storms mainly during
the mid to late afternoon.  Otherwise, mainly MVFR to VFR
conditions are expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  71  88  73  92 /  10  10   0   0
Hobart OK         69  88  72  93 /  10  10  10  10
Wichita Falls TX  73  89  73  93 /  10  20  10  10
Gage OK           66  88  69  92 /  10  10  10  20
Ponca City OK     71  89  73  93 /  10  10   0  10
Durant OK         73  90  72  93 /  10  20  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...06