109
FXUS64 KOUN 141710
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1210 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1208 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024

    - Above average temperatures through much of the next week.

    - Slight rain/storm chances Saturday through Monday.

    - Increasing rain chances next week beginning Tuesday, mainly
      across western/northern Oklahoma.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 252 AM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024

Scattered mid-level clouds have formed across roughly the western
half of Oklahoma early this morning. Widely scattered, small
showers are associated with some of the cloud cover, mainly near
the I-35 corridor. A few lightning strikes have also been noted
with a few of the "taller" cores. Most observations are reporting
no clouds, but based on a few reports and earlier NAM soundings,
cloud bases are around 14-15k feet. Instability above this level
is rather weak, so expect this actively will linger into the early
to mid morning hours before dissipating.

The NAM is also more aggressive in moistening a layer around 6k
feet. If this were to occur, there will be a better chance of
deeper convection and more robust storms. At this time, this
appears unlikely, so will stay with the idea of small showers
and occasional lightning.

High clouds will be more persistent across far southern Oklahoma
and northern Texas today. This may help take a few degrees off
high temperatures but near triple digit heat is expected across
far southwestern Oklahoma and western north Texas (90s elsewhere).

Deep mixing by late afternoon may result in a few thunderstorms
across the Texas Panhandle.  It possible a few storms may
enter far western Oklahoma during the early evening.  Strong
gusty winds will be possible with these storms.

Overnight, it appears thunderstorms may develop across parts
of south central and south central Oklahoma.  Elevated instability
may be sufficient for a few strong storms. A little unsure on how
many storms may form, so will keep PoPs around 20 percent.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 252 AM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024

If storms develop overnight, they will linger through early to mid
Sunday morning before dissipating or moving south of the area.

There could be more elevated showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms
that develop mainly during the overnight hours Sunday night and
again Monday night.  If this occurs, it appears parts of western and
northern Oklahoma will the best chance of seeing this activity.
Otherwise, hot weather will continue with warmer temperatures at
night.

More organized convection is expected to develop to our west Tuesday
afternoon and night, as a shortwave trough moves across the central
and northern Rockies.  Storms that develop may move into parts of
western and northern Oklahoma during the evening and overnight.
Although stronger southwest flow is expected to remain to our west
and north Wednesday into Thursday, there will still be a chance (20-
30%) of mainly evening storms moving into western Oklahoma.

Another shortwave trough is expected to move across the southern and
central Plains around Friday or Saturday of next week.  If this
occurs, there will be a better chance of more widespread rain and
thunderstorms entering at least the western half of Oklahoma.  For
now, storm chances will remain around 30-40% until this feature
becomes more certain.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1208 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the period. There is a very
low chance of showers and thunderstorms for KCSM late evening that
could produce gusty winds. For now, chances remain too low to
include in the TAF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  91  68  88  66 /  30  10  10  10
Hobart OK         99  69  96  68 /  10  10  10  10
Wichita Falls TX 100  71  97  70 /  10  10  10  10
Gage OK           97  63  96  65 /  20  20  10  10
Ponca City OK     90  65  90  64 /  30  10  10  10
Durant OK         93  68  91  66 /  20  20  20  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...01