983
FXUS61 KPBZ 061609
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1209 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather expected through Monday with temperatures rising
well above normal by Monday afternoon.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Dry conditions and seasonable temperatures today.

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Drier southwest flow and sfc high pressure building in from the
west will support dry weather today. Scattered cumulus will
gradually diminish under increasing subsidence. Drier air will
mix to the surface and bring relief to the region from the
multiple day experience of humid conditions.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- High probability for dry weather and slightly above average
  temperature the rest of the weekend.

- Fog potential for Sunday and Monday mornings.

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With sufficient low level moisture, light wind, and breaks in
cloud cover, fog development will be possible, especially along
river valleys. Return flow as high pressure settles over the
Atlantic will support rising temperature Sunday into Monday as
the next upper trough deepens over the Central Plains.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Unsettled weather returns Tuesday through at least mid-week.

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Ensemble consensus continues to favor an Upper Midwest trough
lifting through the Great Lakes region Tuesday into Wednesday
morning with a weak surface trough. Moist advection ahead of the
wave is likely to foster a warm, humid environment translating
to likely showers and thunderstorms ahead of the feature.
Environmental conditions remain varied, but with ensemble means
showing near 90F highs and 70F dewpoints, there appears to be at
least a low probability for flash flood risk and potential other
severe hazards.

Variations become post-shortwave passage depending on high
pressure strength to the north as well as potential pattern
impact from the remnants of Hurricane Beryl. The main takeaways
for the long range period is that 500mb mean heights suggest a
continuation of near to above normal temperature and
precipitation chances tied to shortwave movement. Trends are
difficult to pin down at this time, but after the remnants of
Beryl moves east, the cold front will finally pass through
leading to potentially drier weather to end the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High confidence forecast. IFR clouds are possible through 14Z at
a few airports in wake of the cold front. After 14Z...VFR
weather returns the balance of the forecast. DUJ and FKL could
keep MVFR CIGS through 15Z if they don`t mix out like other
airports. Wind will be west today with gusts around 20kts.

.Outlook...
VFR weather through Monday. A chance of MVFR or lower brief
flight restrictions are possible starting Tuesday with the next
weather system.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...88
NEAR TERM...88
SHORT TERM...Frazier/Shallenberger/88
LONG TERM...Frazier/Shallenberger
AVIATION...Rackley/88/McMullen