755
FXUS61 KPBZ 070552
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
152 AM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather is anticipated to continue into Monday under high
pressure. Fog potential increases early Sunday morning north of
Pittsburgh, PA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Dry conditions and seasonable temperatures today.
- Fog potential increases early Sunday morning with radiational
  cooling, especially for areas north of Pittsburgh.

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With a prolong period of clearing through dawn, radiational fog
may develop for portions of the region. Hi-Res model guidance
are focusing heavily near the I-80 region for fog due to
elevated sfc moisture.

Temperatures for today will be slightly warmer than Saturday
with slight warm advection aloft and diurnal mixing under a
mostly clear sky. Temperatures will trend 5 degrees above the
climatological average; heat index values south of Pittsburgh
are anticipated to be near 90F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- High probability for dry weather and slightly above average
  temperature the rest of the weekend.

- Fog potential for Sunday and Monday mornings.

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With sufficient low level moisture, light wind, and breaks in
cloud cover, early morning fog development could continue into
Monday.

With a noted 590dm heights at 500mb and 850mb temperatures
around 20C by Monday, daytime highs temperatures are expected to
range in the low to mid-90s across the region.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Unsettled weather returns Tuesday through at least mid-week.

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Ensemble consensus continues to favor an Upper Midwest trough
lifting through the Great Lakes region Tuesday into Wednesday
morning along with a weak surface trough. Moist advection ahead
of the wave is likely to foster a warm, humid environment
translating to likely showers and thunderstorms ahead of the
feature. Environmental conditions remain varied, but with
ensemble means showing near 90F highs and 70F dewpoints, there
appears to be at least a low probability for flash flood risk
and potential other severe hazards. Latest CSU machine learning
output supports this.

Variations become post-shortwave passage depending on high
pressure strength to the north as well as potential pattern
impact from the remnants of Hurricane Beryl. The main takeaways
for the long range period is that 500mb mean heights suggest a
continuation of near to above normal temperature and
precipitation chances tied to shortwave movement. Trends are
difficult to pin down at this time, but after the remnants of
Beryl moves east, the cold front will finally pass through
leading to potentially drier weather to end the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Lower confidence continues on peri-dawn fog development. Have
continued with fog mention at LBE/MGW/ZZV/FKL where
probabilities are highest. Any fog will largely dissipate by
12Z, leaving VFR conditions for Sunday, with scattered afternoon
cumulus development once again. A weaker surface pressure
gradient will lead to lighter wind, with W/NW wind remaining
under 10 knots.

.Outlook...
General VFR continues through Monday. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms return Tuesday through Thursday with brief,
related restrictions.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hefferan
NEAR TERM...Hefferan/Shallenberger
SHORT TERM...Frazier/Shallenberger/88
LONG TERM...Frazier/Shallenberger/88
AVIATION...Rackley/McMullen