Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ
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030 FXUS61 KPHI 241633 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 1233 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front pushes offshore today with high pressure building in off to the south through Wednesday morning. The heat ramps up on Wednesday ahead of another strong cold front coming in late Wednesday. High pressure builds in once the front moves offshore, and will remain in control through the first half of the weekend before another frontal system comes in late Saturday/Sunday && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Ongoing forecast in good shape. A couple adjustments to sky and temps. Winds are gusting 30 to 40 mph across the higher elevations of the southern Poconos. Drier and cooler air are arriving behind the front from overnight. Clouds will continue to decrease from NW to SE across the area. Daytime temperatures will be quite a bit cooler for most areas with mid/upper 70s for the Southern Poconos and Lehigh Valley areas and low/mid 80s for metro Philadelphia and much of NJ. A few upper 80s for Delmarva are possible. The dew points will be much lower, dropping to the mid-50s, with a more comfortable feel to the air. Winds will be West to Northwest and increase to 10 to 15 mph with gusts to 25 mph at times. High pressure continues to build in Monday night with mostly clear skies. NW-WNW winds will maintain a steady breeze overnight, around 5-10 mph. A very cool and comfortable night ahead with lows in the 60s and low humidity. . && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... High pressure builds in for Tuesday into Tuesday Night. We will get a little warmer as flow turns more southwesterly and warm air advection sets up. Temperatures will get into the upper 80s/low 90s, but with dew points in the 50s, it won`t feel nearly as oppressive as the previous week. Skies will be mostly sunny and it will be a pretty nice early summer day overall. Temperatures on Tuesday Night will be a bit on the milder side as a warm front lifts through and dew points increase ahead of a hot and humid Wednesday. Looking at upper 60s/low 70s with increasing clouds. For Wednesday, a warm and muggy day is on tap as dew points climb to near 70. Ahead of a cold front, warm, moist air will advect in and PWATs will surge to near 2 inches. The front approaches as we get into Wednesday afternoon, and some afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms are expected. The setup is not too dissimilar from what we saw yesterday (similar instability, steep low level lapse rates, and forcing for example), though with perhaps just a touch more shear. So there is some severe weather potential with the main threat being damaging wind gusts. With such a moist airmass in place, cannot rule out some localized flash flooding, but would expect storms to be moving at a steady pace based off some of the model soundings. With the front coming in later in the day, it will allow temperatures to soar into the low to mid 90s, again similar to yesterday. Heat indices will get near triple digits and a Heat Advisory may be needed, especially for the urban corridor. Showers and thunderstorms should taper off into the night, but rain chances remain until the front passes. Temperatures will drop into the upper 60s/low 70s on Wednesday Night. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Relatively quiet in the long term with seasonable temperatures overall. The cold front moves offshore by Thursday, ushering in a more comfortable airmass with lower dew points. There could be some lingering showers/thunderstorms near the coast in the morning as the front passes, but it should be mainly dry day, especially along and west of the I-95 corridor. Upper level ridging begins to move in with an expansive area of surface high pressure slowly sliding by just to the north. This will result in a few nice days through the first half of the weekend with dry weather and seasonable temperatures (mid to upper 80s for highs). Another frontal system looks to move in somewhere in the late Saturday/Sunday window, which will bring another chance from some showers and thunderstorms. Still a lot of timing differences among guidance though and a bit far out to see any severe potential. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. this afternoon...VFR conditions are expected. Winds will continue out of the northwest to 15-20 knots, with gusts 25-30 knots. High confidence. Monday night...VFR conditions expected. Gusty northwest winds around 20 knots early in the evening, then northwest 5-10 knots. Outlook... Tuesday through Wednesday morning...VFR. No significant weather. Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday Night...Restrictions likely (60-80%) with SHRA/TSRA as a cold front comes through. Thursday...Some restrictions possible for the first half of the day possible (30%), mainly at KACY/KMIV. Otherwise, primarily VFR. Thursday Night through Friday...VFR. No significant weather. && .MARINE... Small Craft Advisory will continue into this evening and tonight. Gusty NW winds 15 to 20 kts with gusts to 30 kts possible. Seas around 4-6 ft will gradually fall to 3-5 ft by late afternoon and tonight. Outlook... Rip Currents... Tuesday through Tuesday Night...No marine headlines expected. Fair weather. Wednesday through Wednesday Night...SCA conditions possible (30-40%) as seas near 5 feet and southerly wind gusts get near 25 kt. Thursday through Friday...No marine headlines expected. Monday...West-northwest winds around 10-15 mph with gusts up to 20 mph and breaking waves around 2 to 3 feet. Although wind direction will be directed offshore, wave periods are expected to increase to around 7 to 8 seconds. For this reason, have maintained a MODERATE Risk for the development of dangerous rip currents for both NJ/DE beaches. Tuesday...Northwest winds will back to southerly as the day goes on around 10 mph. Breaking waves around 1 to 2 feet. With winds mainly directed offshore or parallel to the coast and much lower wave heights, have opted to go with a LOW Risk of rip currents for all beaches. For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi && .CLIMATE... With this stretch of heat, our climate sites set or tied 20 record high maximum temperatures or record high minimum temperatures. The stretch of heat is over with the passage of this cold front. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ430- 431. Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ450>452. Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for ANZ453>455. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hoeflich NEAR TERM...MJL/po SHORT TERM...Hoeflich LONG TERM...Hoeflich AVIATION...Hoeflich/MJL MARINE...Hoeflich/MJL CLIMATE...