369
FXUS61 KPHI 120754
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
354 AM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak surface high pressure controls the region through Thursday
night. A cold front approaches from the northwest Thursday
night into Friday and looks to cross through later Friday into
Friday night. High pressure builds in thereafter and holds
influence over the region into the beginning of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Pesky upper low has been slow to clear the region early this
morning, with a few light echoes on radar lingering until after
midnight across northern areas along with plenty of low-mid
clouds. These are slowly dissipating and expect generally
clearing skies through dawn. Some patchy fog may form before
sunrise, most likely across parts of southern NJ and DE where
there was a little rain in the last 24 hours or so, but it
should be pretty minimal. Temps by dawn will be in the 50s for
most, 40s in the coolest Pocono spots and 60ish in the warmest
urban and coastal locales.

For today, upper low will continue pulling away as upper
ridging builds in. There will be a warm front moving across the
region to usher in the warmer air, and it will be accompanied by
mainly mid and high clouds, so not expecting a pure sunny
day... more likely partly to mostly sunny. Regardless, the
return of sun and passing warm front should push temps back to
near 80 for much of the region.

Tonight, ridging and warm advection continues aloft. Thus,
expect temps to stay a few degrees warmer despite less cloud
cover, with upper 50s to low 60s for most.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Weak surface high pressure controls the region Thursday and Thursday
night. Thursday night and early Friday, a cold front from the
northwest approaches. This cold front looks to cross through Friday
afternoon into Friday evening. Afterwards, surface high pressure
begins to build back in.

We will be looking at a dry forecast for Thursday and Thursday night
with surface high pressure in control. PoPs will increase from the
northwest with time Friday; highest PoP expected between 2PM Friday
and 2AM Saturday due to the further approach and passage of the cold
front.

We will have to keep an eye on the forecast regarding this cold
front for later Friday into Friday night. The front is currently
forecast to cross through during the ideal time for potential severe
weather after what looks to be a decent day of solar heating.
Between latest regional and global guidance, 1000-2000 J/kg of CAPE
can be noted with around 35-40 kts of 0-6 km shear in most
model soundings. In addition, noting fairly moist and tall CAPE
profiles with PW values between 1.5-2.0 inches; excessive
rainfall may be a concern.

Decent warm air advection takes hold Thursday through Friday. Most
locations will be looking at highs in the mid to upper 80s for
Thursday while the areas near the coast and Poconos see the upper
70s to low 80s. Temperatures are forecast to be even warmer for
Friday. Most areas will see the upper 80s to low 90s, the immediate
coastal areas and Poconos seeing the upper 70s to mid 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
An upper-level ridge centered over/near the Mississippi River
Valley Saturday will progress eastward and build with time. This
ridge will look to be centered over the southeastern CONUS for
Sunday, only continuing build with time. Monday onwards, the strong
ridge looks to utterly dominate over the eastern CONUS; higher
heights continuing to build over the northeastern CONUS and
northwards of it going forwards. Most ensembles suggest this
ridge could even dominate over the region into the end of week.

At the surface level, high pressure looks to dominate over the
region Saturday and Sunday into Monday. Surface high pressure will
look to be centered over/near the Great Lakes region Saturday and
will move generally eastward with time. Though the surface high is
forecast to shift offshore Monday, guidance suggests the high will
still influence the region into at least Tuesday.

Dry forecast for the weekend with some slight shower potential
during the evening time frames Monday/Tuesday thanks to some
potential shortwave energy. Main story of the long term will be the
heat in the beginning of week. Ensembles suggest anomalous heights
around 588-592 dam over the region; surface temperatures will likely
run above average starting Monday and Tuesday. It remains too
early to really discuss any potential for heat headlines at this
time, but rest assured, it will feel hot.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

VFR overall expected through tonight. Could be a little BR at
KACY/KMIV early this morning, but odds are not good, so have
left out of TAF for now. Otherwise, winds mainly 5 kts or less
through tonight, from a northerly or westerly direction, except
at KACY where a sea breeze is likely by this afternoon. High
confidence.

Outlook...

Thursday...VFR with mostly clear skies. No significant weather
expected.

Friday through Friday night...Sub-VFR conditions possible with a
chance of thunderstorms during the afternoon/evening.

Saturday through Sunday...VFR with mostly clear skies. No
significant weather expected.

&&

.MARINE...
No marine headlines through tonight. Winds northerly to westerly
generally below 15 kts and seas of 1-2, occasionally up to 3
feet.

Outlook...

Thursday through Friday night...SCA conditions possible Thursday
into Friday due to winds gusting up to 20-25 kts and seas of
3-5 feet. Fair weather expected through Thursday night with a
chance of thunderstorms later Friday and Friday night.

Saturday through Sunday...No marine headlines expected. Winds up to
10-15 kts with seas 2-4 feet. Fair weather.

Rip Currents...

A Low risk for the formation of dangerous rip currents
continues through Thursday. Southerly winds will only have a
small component onshore for most of the coast. Additionally,
expecting more short period, wind driven waves.

For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Wunderlin
NEAR TERM...RCM
SHORT TERM...Wunderlin
LONG TERM...Wunderlin
AVIATION...DeSilva/Fitzsimmons/Johnson/RCM/Wunderlin
MARINE...DeSilva/Fitzsimmons/Johnson/RCM/Wunderlin