640
FXUS62 KRAH 221503
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
1103 AM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A back-door cool front will drop south into the area this afternoon
and evening and tonight. The front is expected to become quasi-
stationary INVOF of upstate SC and southern NC, eventually washing
out early week as weak high pressure extends south down the mid-
Atlantic coast.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
As of 1100 AM Sunday...

Only made a few minor tweaks to the temperatures this morning based
on recent obs. Otherwise the forecast remains on track. The 12Z
upper air analyses show a H25 jet streak extending from western NY
to northeast NC, on the back side of the upper trough/northeast
periphery of the sub-tropical ridge. At H5 there was a 40m 12-hr
height fall at Wallops Island, with weaker 20m falls over VA and NC.
While coastal NC was relatively saturated at both H7 and H85, there
was some drier air evident at H7 from the GSO sounding, indicating a
decent moisture gradient from W to E across the area at H7. The 12Z
surface analysis showed a couple of weak surface lows, one near the
Triad and the other over northeast NC. The backdoor front was likely
still back over sern VA at 12Z. At 15Z, satellite imagery shows the
area of low-stratus over northeast NC, slowly moving swwd toward the
Triangle. -KC

From the previous discussion (as of 330 AM): The low clouds could
linger/hold on over NE portions of central NC for a fairly
substantial portion of the diurnal heating cycle, which will likely
set-up an impressive NE to SW temperature gradient across the area,
while also making for a challenging max Temp forecast today,
especially along it`s eventual western fringes. HREF probabilistic
guidance indicates as much as 8 degree spread in afternoon temps,
with the greatest uncertainty centered over the central Piedmont,
including the Triangle. Highs ranging from mid/upper 70s northern
coastal plain, lower/mid 80s interior sections, and upper 80s/near
90 across the southern Piedmont.

Isolated showers/storms will be possible as the front slips south,
mainly across eastern Piedmont/coastal plain sections where the best
instability is forecast. Widespread low clouds/stratus will spread
NE to SW during the the evening and overnight hours. Additionally,
some showers could spread into the western/NW Piedmont tonight as
shortwave impulses spread in from the west within a mid-level plume
of enhanced moisture and WAA. Lows ranging from lower 60s NE to
upper 60s southwest.  -CBL

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 AM Sunday...

Weak H5 rises are expected over the region on Monday as the upper
ridge over the GOM builds towards the Florida Peninsula. The
aforementioned back-door cool front near the SC/NC border early
Monday could retreat back north during they day. Meanwhile,
downstream of the an upper shortwave trough over the Mid/Lower MO
Valley, weak disturbances will continue to eject east atop the mid-
level ridge axis and through the region, keeping a plume of enhanced
mid-level moist and WAA focused over NC and VA, with PWATS forecast
to increase to ~2.0" by Monday evening.

We`ll see considerable multi-layer cloudiness across central NC,
especially the western Piedmont. Weak to moderate destablization
across the southern and western Piedmont will support a chance of
showers and storms, especially during the afternoon and evening,
with general model consensus the potential for scattered
shower/convection to spread east into central and eastern NC Monday
night.

Highs Monday ranging from mid/upper 70s north to mid 80s south. Lows
again in the lower 60s NE to upper 60s south.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 335 AM Sunday...

Upper level ridging over the Mid-Atlantic region Tuesday will shift
off the coast by Wednesday. A lingering backdoor front in western NC
is expected to bring showers and storms Tuesday into Wednesday with
the best chance in the NW Piedmont, and lower chances in the south
and eastern portions of the CWA. As the front is expected to lift by
late Tuesday early or Wednesday, the upper level ridge shifts
offshore followed by a trough moving across the MS valley and into
the TN and OH valley. However, with the ensembles not on the same
page, solutions show the trough stalled across the MS valley with
the development of a low developing in the Gulf of Mexico sometime
Thursday. Depending on what/where that storm does/go the frontal
passage could move across the region Thursday or  stall out and
linger NW of us. For now have highest PoPs afternoon Wednesday
through early Thursday. With lingering 20-30% chance through the
rest of the week, with the uncertainty of the possible storm that
develops in the Gulf of Mexico.  Temperatures Tues-Thurs will range
from upper 70s to low/mid 80s across the region. After the front
moves through the region, temperatures are expected to drop with
highs in the mid 70s to low 80s late week.


&&

.AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 650 AM Sunday...

A period of MVFR ceilings appear likely at KRWI this morning, with a
shorter, more fleeting period possible at KRDU as an area of low
clouds/stratus over SE VA spreads south into the area. These sub-VFR
ceilings could linger at KRWI into the early afternoon before
lifting. Elsewhere, flight conditions should remain VFR.

Then during the afternoon and evening, a back-door cold
front, denoted by a NELY wind shift, will push southeast through the
through the area, bringing widespread LIFR to IFR restrictions
in stratus and fog this this evening and tonight.

After 12Z Monday: Mainly VFR conditions expected each day, with the
exception of sub-VFR fog/stratus each morning. There is a chance for
mainly afternoon/evening showers/tstms each day, which could also
briefly reduce flt conditions at times.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...KC/CBL
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...CBL/np