150
FXUS62 KRAH 011737
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
135 PM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

Much drier and cooler high pressure will then extend into the
southeast today through Tuesday. A gradual return of heat and
humidity is expected by the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1027 AM Monday...

The sfc cold front has just passed through the southern edge of our
CWA.  Post-frontal nely gustiness has been impressive along and east
of the US-1 corridor (KRDU gusted to 29 kts, KRWI to 31 kts, KFAY
just gusted to 42 kts!). Expect this gustiness to gradually subside
through mid afternoon, but could see some additional higher gusts
for this time of year in these locations the next few hours.

Otherwise, a few lingering light showers remain in the far
northeast, but overall the rain has largely moved out of our area.
Dew points are quickly crashing into the mid 50s across the north,
as dry air spills in behind the front. Expect a cooler and drier
rest of today, with highs only reaching the upper 70s to lower 80s
and PWAT dropping well below normal this afternoon.

A pleasant night is on tap with lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s
and dew points in the 50s under mostly clear skies.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 135 PM Monday..

Surface high centered over the New York region will stretch into NC
from the north bringing a short relief from the heat. Light
northerly flow will result in temps ranging in the low to mid 80s
for much of the area. It will feel comfortable outside as dew points
will stay in the 50s during the day. By Tuesday evening the surface
high will shift offshore and the surface flow over central NC will
become more south/southeasterly. Tuesday night will be dry and clear
with lows ranging in from the low to mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 250 AM Monday...

Aloft, the mid-level anticyclone will sit over the TN Valley/Deep
South Wed/Wed night. A series of northern stream s/w disturbances
will track eastward from the northern Plains through the Great
Lakes/OH Valley from Tue through Sun, with each successive s/w
slowly pushing the high, first southward to over the Southeast and
Deep South Thu and Fri then eastward off the Southeast US and mid-
Atlantic coast Sat and Sun. At the surface, the high will sit off
the mid-Atlantic coast Wed/Wed night, with the ridge axis shifting
eastward out of central NC through early Thu. Once the ridge shifts
east out of the area, a lee trough will set up and remain in place
through Sat night, when a cold front will approach from the west. As
of the latest model solutions, the front appears to wash out along
or west of the Appalachians. Expect swly flow and the advection of
warm, moist air into the area to take over once the ridge moves out
Thu morning. Temperatures may actually be near normal on Wed, but
will then be above to well above normal Thu through Sun. As for
rainfall, Wed/Wed night should be dry, but as the mid-level ridge
gradually gets suppressed south and the lee trough strengthens, some
diurnally driven convection will be possible Thu, but more likely
Fri, Sat, and Sun aft/eve. Latest forecast heat index values do
creep back to around 105 again in a few spots on Thu, however the
more widespread heat index values of 105 to 109 (across much of
central NC) are expected Fri and Sat. Some lingering heat index
values of 100-105 are possible across the south and east on Sun.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 1245 PM Monday...

VFR conditions will prevail through the 24 hour TAF period as dry
air filters in behind a departing cold front. Some residual VFR
stratocu may stick around some this afternoon, but overall skies
should be mostly clear.  Residual gusty nely sfc flow early this
afternoon will subside through later this afternoon and into the
evening. Light nly flow early Tuesday will turn more ely but remain
light in the afternoon.

Outlook: VFR conditions will continue Tuesday through Thursday as
dry high pressure extends down into central NC.  Return flow on
Friday will promote increasing humidity and the chance for diurnal
showers and early morning fog/stratus next weekend.
&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Badgett
NEAR TERM...Luchetti
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...Luchetti