Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV
Issued by NWS Reno, NV
277 FXUS65 KREV 242117 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 217 PM PDT Fri May 24 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Breezy winds and mild temperatures will persist through Saturday. A warming trend from Sunday into early next week will bring above average temperatures and continued dry conditions. There is, however, a low end chance for isolated thunderstorms in the Sierra this evening and on Monday afternoon. && .DISCUSSION... Key Points: * Mild temperatures continue into Saturday with an above average warming trend starting Sunday to round out the Memorial Day Weekend that continues through early next week. * Saturday will see enhanced breezes with wind gusts generally 25-35 mph. Lighter afternoon breezes return Sunday and again for Memorial Day with typical afternoon breezes continuing into next week. * Continued dry conditions for Saturday and Sunday with a low-end return of thunderstorm chances (10-20%) for Monday. Tonight through Sunday: A weak short wave trough that drops into the Great Basin region will drag over the Sierra and western Nevada, and bring another day of enhanced afternoon breezes on Saturday. As winds mix down into lower western NV valleys later Saturday morning into the afternoon, gusts will peak in the 25-35 mph range before gradually tapering off going into the evening hours. Area lakes could see a return of choppy surface conditions during the afternoon hours with aviation interests experiencing another period of light to moderate turbulence until winds dissipate later Saturday night. Sunday will see more subdued winds with gusts rarely topping 20 mph. Overnight into Saturday AM, the drier airmass and northwest upper flow in the wake of the outgoing trough will allow for a few chilly nights for colder valleys, especially in the Sierra where readings will hover up and down near freezing mark. Daytime temperatures on Saturday will stay mostly average with little deviation with daytime highs for western valleys rising in the low to mid 70s with Sierra locations to include Mono County pushing upward into the upper 50s to low 60s. By Sunday higher pressure begins to take hold of the region, and initiates a warming trend that looks top drive daytime highs a few degrees above average for many places across the Sierra and western NV. Although overnight lows will not recover much Sunday morning for the colder valleys, daytime highs for western NV valleys will push into the low 80s with most Sierra valleys still able to warm into the high 60s to low 70s. Memorial Day onward: It is fitting that a warming trend with plenty of sunshine starts in earnest on this day of reflection for our nation`s heroes. An upper ridge axis will build and amplify over the western US and extend northward into western Canada. As higher pressure gain a stronger foothold across the region, temperatures will start an upward march with daytime highs returning to around 10 degrees above normal by Mon-Tue. The modest moisture across higher elevation areas, lighter winds, and increased surface heating should be sufficient to increase instability and bring a 10-20% chance for isolated storms over the Sierra Monday afternoon. Dont be surprised that these conditions bring a repeat performance Tuesday afternoon as well. Storm coverage may be a bit limited for any storms that form Tuesday as simulations project an increasing southwest upper flow and more stable conditions ahead of another incoming cold front. By mid-week with another cold front looking to affect the region, temperature variability from blended guidance simulations is providing that level of uncertainty that calls out how long the expected warming trend will last. Although ensemble cluster guidance is placing upper ridging across the western US that strengthens the notion that decent warming continues through next week, along with continued dry conditions, broad troughing still wants to edge into the region through the backdoor. Ensemble simulations do show the region staying mostly dry with only the low-end chance for more afternoon showers over the Sierra. But this maybe offset with cool periods with periods of enhanced afternoon breezes. Believe me, this forecast reverberates the idea that the hotter summer heat desires to stay on vacation just a little longer. That`s OK with me! -Amanda && .AVIATION... * 30-hr operating period (00Z Sat-06Z Sun): Look for isolated showers and thunderstorms dissipating about an hour after sunset. Any storms at or near an terminals could still have erratic wind gusts to 30-35kts. Impacts will be short-lived, and last less than 30 min. The breezy W-NW winds that have gusts 20-25 kts into the evening may produce light mechanical turbulence till 03Z. VFR conditions with light winds will prevail overnight into Sat AM. After 18-20Z, look for breezy W-NW winds returning with gusts to 20-30kts that diminish gradually after sunset. * Rest of the Memorial Day Weekend: Otherwise, generally dry and stable the rest of the weekend with lighter daytime breezes with gusts to 15kts. There is still a low-end 10-15% chance for isolated showers and thunderstorms Monday PM mostly along the Sierra crest. -Amanda && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...None. CA...None. && $$