Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

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FXUS65 KREV 201002
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
302 AM PDT Wed Jun 20 2018

.SYNOPSIS...

Above average temperatures with dry conditions will prevail through
next weekend. Breezy afternoon and evening conditions are expected
through Thursday, with lighter winds Friday and Saturday. Thunderstorm
risks remain very low through at least next weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

A weak upper low currently approaching the northern California coast
will move into the western half of Oregon this evening. The main impact
from the low for northeast California and western Nevada will be an
increase in southwest to west breezes this afternoon and evening as
increased onshore flow into California enhances the thermal gradient
across the region. Winds gusting 25-35 mph for eastern California and
western Nevada, generally west of Highway 95, will make for increased
chop on area lakes and bring an increased threat for mainly grass
fires. For more information on winds and humidities tailored to fire
concerns, see the fire weather section (below) of this discussion.

Thursday, late afternoon and evening wind gusts are expected to ease
down to 20-30 mph at best as winds aloft ease down behind Wednesday`s
upper disturbance. With little cooling aloft, high temperatures are
expected to remain above normal (but nothing unusual) and within
1-3 degrees of Wednesday`s highs. Friday, winds lighten further
with temperatures remaining similar to Thursday. -Snyder

.LONG TERM...Saturday into next week...
The warm, dry pattern will continue into at least the middle of next
week. A low will drop into the eastern Great Basin Saturday that
will bring winds more out of the north Saturday into Sunday and act
to cool temps slightly. Then the ridge rebuilds over Arizona with a
light SW flow aloft, typical for summer. Temps will rebound to the
mid to upper 90s for western NV valleys early next week, with 80s
in the Sierra valleys. An afternoon zephyr breeze can be expected
each day.

One thing to watch, especially if the high were to build slightly
further northwest, is isolated thunderstorms over Mono-Mineral
Counties. There is nothing to indicate it right now as the SW flow
is expected to be strong enough to disrupt this convergence pattern
from developing. X

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions through Friday. Increased SW winds this afternoon at
most terminals north of US 50 with peak gusts to 25 kts 20-03Z.
Winds will increase again Thursday afternoon, but be more from the
west with peak gusts around 20 kts. Some light mtn wave turbulence
will occur through Thursday evening. X

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Low pressure will move into the Pacific Northwest tonight with SW
winds increasing this afternoon and evening. Most gusts are expected
to be 30 mph or less and along the 395 corridor north of Bridgeport.
The Highway 95 corridor will see gusts around 25 mph after 4-5 PM
for a couple hours. Localized red flag conditions will occur in the
wind prone areas, but otherwise it is expected to be a marginal event.

Tonight, a big dry slot moves in and humidity recovery will be poor
on mid slopes and ridges. The Tahoe Basin will see RH crater back to
the single digits and teens after an evening "recovery". This will
occur above 6500-7000 feet or so. Low RH will occur Thursday, but
winds are not expected to be as strong with gusts around 25 mph
followed by poor recoveries continuing into Thursday night.

The airmass modifies slightly this weekend as north flow develops
with some locally gusty overnight winds Saturday/Sunday nights in
453/458. A return of the zephyr is expected early next week with
more very dry air and poor recovery. At this time, thunderstorm
chances look minimal through the middle of next week. X


.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/reno


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