Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Reno, NV
000
FXUS65 KREV 191936
AFDREV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
1236 PM PDT Fri Apr 19 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Warm and dry conditions with typical afternoon breezes will
prevail through the weekend. Above average highs in the 60s for
Sierra communities and 70s for lower valleys, with even a few
valleys cresting 80 degrees into Monday. There will be isolated
shower chances near the Sierra today, and lower potential for
southern Mono county through the weekend. The trend continues for
cooler and more active weather returns mid to late next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
* Warm and dry weekend ahead: Well above normal temperatures and
plenty of sunshine will have it feeling quite warm, especially
with some lower valleys nearing or surpassing 80 degrees. Be sure
to stay hydrated, wear sunscreen, and keep an eye on those more
sensitive to the warmer temperatures. The warmer temperatures
will also fuel snowmelt in the Sierra, for more details check out
the Hydrology section.
* Warm days means that we`re edging back into thunderstorm
season. Main concern for any showers and thunderstorms is along
the Sierra today. As of 1pm, visible satellite showing a few
pops of cumulus clouds across Mono county. There is a 15-20%
chance for a storm or two near Mammoth Lakes, and a 5-10%
chance near Lake Tahoe. It`s that time of year, so keep an eye
on the skies if you have outdoor plans or recreation,
particularly in the afternoons.
* It still appears that we will be shifting into a more active
weather pattern for next week with a several troughs setting up
shop over the Eastern Pacific. There are still discrepancies in
the exact track of the incoming shortwaves and troughs, but the
trend is still there for cooler temperatures as well as higher
potential for showers starting as early as Tuesday. Blended
guidance has been consistently showing 20-30% chances for
showers across the Sierra and western Nevada Wednesday onward.
-Edan
&&
.AVIATION...
* VFR conditions will prevail this weekend, outside of a bit of
patchy FZFG Saturday and Sunday mornings. Plan on light surface
winds except for some enhanced breezes Saturday afternoon. For
western NV valley terminals, gusts will reach 20-25 kts, while
Sierra valley terminals will be around 15-20 kts.
* Showers and thunderstorm potential will be confined to the Sierra
from the Tahoe Basin southward into Mono County. For KMMH, 20-25%
chances of showers, with a 10-15% chance of lightning.
-Edan
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Above normal temperatures combined with mostly sunny skies will
increase snowmelt leading to minor to moderate rises in rivers and
creeks draining largely snow covered watersheds. While no flooding
is expected in the area, many waterways will be running cold and
fast, with gradually increasing flows into early next week. The
West Fork of the Carson near Woodfords is expected to rise above
the action stage each night through Tuesday, but remain below
flood stage.
Rivers and streams draining mostly snow covered terrain below
about 7500 feet are likely to see their seasonal peaks by early
next week. Basins with significant higher elevation terrain will
retain plenty of snow for higher flows with subsequent warmups. The
Lower Humboldt is expected to have very high flows for many weeks
with minor flooding likely in May or June, or even into early July.
Exercise caution around rivers and streams, remember mountain
rivers and streams often reach their highest levels from snowmelt
at night.
-TB
&&
.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&
$$