075
FXUS63 KSGF 272114
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
414 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Slightly less hot today. Hot again Friday/Saturday and
  slightly cooler Sunday.

- 20-45% chance of showers across the north tonight; most stay
  dry.

- Larger-scale system bringing widespread precipitation chances
  up to 60% Friday night through Sunday morning.

- Humid heat returns next week, with potential feels-like temperatures
  above 100 on Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 411 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

Current Conditions and Observations:

Current satellite imagery depicts clear skies across the Missouri
Ozarks and Osage Plains, stemming from a deep dry profile shown by
satellite-derived soundings as well as this morning`s 12Z sounding.
However, dew point depressions at all levels have been consistently
decreasing through the morning and early afternoon hours (as sampled
by GOES satellite-derived soundings), especially in the upper
levels. Wind directions are spatially variable, coming from a
northeasterly direction through central and south-central Missouri
and shifting to more southeasterly as you get further west. This
anticyclonic flow pattern is focused around a weakening high
pressure center that sits roughly over the Truman Lake/Pomme de
Terre Lake area.

Synoptic Pattern:

A shortwave disturbance is beginning to push from central Canada
into the Northern Plains, supported by a well-endowed low-level jet
riding up the westward side of the low-level ridge above our area.
Dry air advection in the lower mid-levels is being cut off as the
low-level and surface ridges are pushed eastward by the ejecting
shortwave. The shortwave will force the low-level and upper-level
ridges apart, shredding them from the middle portions of the
atmosphere. The center of support for the upper-level ridge is the
perfect mix of weak enough to be pushed by a stronger wave yet
organized enough to maintain a distinct circulation, leading it to
retrograde as far southwest as the Upper Rio Grande Valley over the
next 24 hours. (This will become important later in the forecast
period, but in the short term it`s just something odd to nerd out
over considering the strong zonal flow dominating the northern half
of the CONUS and an unchanging global wave number. Break out the
Hovmoller, if you`re into that.)


Normal People Weather, Today through Friday:

Cloud cover will start to increase later this afternoon into the
evening and overnight hours as moisture continues filtering eastward
and peak daytime heating starts utilizing the moisture that`s out
there. Max T`s today will be highest with southwestward extent and
in higher-altitude areas, maxing out in the low 90s near the border
with Oklahoma and at the top of higher terrain and in the mid-80s
along river valleys and in lower terrain. Lows overnight into Friday
will be in the 70s (as high as 75) along and northwest of I-44,
dropping into the mid- to low 60s southeast of I-44. Heat indices
will remain close to actual temperature during the daytime, but with
such warm low temperatures overnight, even the coolest areas may not
feel like they get below 70 degrees.

Friday will warm by several degrees, with temperatures again at
their highest with increased southwest extent and in areas where the
southerly wind can funnel warm air up the terrain. Max T`s Friday
will be in the upper 80s in the south-central Missouri valleys and
as high as mid- or even upper 90s into southeast Kansas and far
southwest Missouri (McDonald County). Heat indices may break 100 in
areas that reach 94-95 or higher, and the winds of 10-15mph may only
provide minimal relief.

As the shortwave from the north pushes south into our area, PoPs
were increased up to 20-45% in the furthest northwest extent of the
CWA for early Friday morning, as recent CAM guidance indicates that
the southward extent of forcing aloft may sag further than previous
forecasts suggested. PoPs decrease during the day Friday before
increasing again to 30-60% Friday evening and into the overnight
hours for areas north and east of I-44 and I-49. Impressive
isentropic ascent and MUCAPE values of 3500 J/kg+ in this area
suggest convection is likely if storms can latch onto an ample
source of lift; the best environment (juice) will remain well north
of our area, but any convection that initiates in that area would
move southeast towards us, and with a good enough environment it
could support thunderstorms and some sub-severe wind gusts further
south than currently forecasted.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 411 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

The weekend brings convection chances and warm temperatures again,
as highs on Saturday will spread across the 90s (highest
temperatures, just below 100, along the MO/AR border) and a cold
frontal passage brings lift to realize nearly 4000 J/kg of CAPE in a
ripe summertime atmosphere. How the Friday night/Saturday morning
storm complex evolves may change the development of Saturday
evening/night storms. If the morning storms stay north of the region
and/or clear quickly after sunrise, ample destabilization could
occur for thunderstorms. Widespread severe threat with Saturday`s
storms is not expected due to the lack of strong flow or support
aloft, but scattered thunderstorms could result in small hail or
strong winds if these thunderstorms can initiate. Perhaps notably,
perhaps not, the experimental MPAS model (the only model to have
handled recent overnight complex events remotely well) has storms
attaching to the boundary and bringing rain to the entire CWA rather
than fizzling out with southwestward extent; we`ll see if that
happens, but worth keeping an eye on. If a stronger complex of
storms develop, some areas may see some higher precipitation amounts
(1-1.25" in a heaviest-rain scenario) due to convective precip, but
the most likely case scenario tops out weekend QPF around the 0.5"
mark.

Behind the cold front, the CONUS flow pattern evolves and moves
along enough that the retrograded ridge aloft (which has been
nursing its wounds in Texas over the weekend) begins to build into
the central US again Monday-Wednesday. This will bring temperatures
back into the upper 90s across the area, and humidity will be high
enough thanks to ample moisture sent our way from the high over the
Gulf that apparent temperatures may again near the 105 degree mark.
Way too early for heat headlines, but again, something to keep an
eye on.

Also worth noting with these potential upcoming systems: with
primarily a wind threat, even storms that remain sub-severe could
cause damage to the portions of southwest and central Missouri that
have recently received rainfall and convective rainfall above 0.75".
Most soil moisture products aren`t very trustworthy around our area,
but crop moisture and soil analytics from the Missouri USDA indicate
that areas north and east of Springfield have positive soil moisture
anomalies that match partner anecdotes and reports of mushy, wet
soil. This means that even sub-severe winds could uproot trees,
causing damage despite not meeting technical thresholds. On the
other extreme, abnormally dry conditions returned to far southwest
Missouri and far southeast Kansas on today`s update of the Drought
Monitor, so these areas could probably benefit from the scenario
that brings convective rainfall further southwest. Farmer reports
indicate generally adequate conditions to produce sufficient feed
for cattle, but note that growth is below average.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

High pressure over the region will bring VFR flight conditions
through tonight into Friday. There is good confidence in
limited impacts from cloud cover with scattered to broken
ceilings at or above 25kft. Surface winds will become more
southeasterly and gusty by late Friday morning.

An isolated storm may be possible across western portions of the
Ozarks through the next 24 hours, mainly impacting the KJLN
area. Confidence is low (~10%) but will be watch heading into
tonight and Friday morning.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 411 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024


Record High Temperatures:

July 2:
KSGF: 100/1933
KJLN: 103/2011

July 3:
KSGF: 98/2011
KJLN: 100/2011


Record High Minimum Temperatures:

June 29:
KSGF: 80/1936

July 2:
KSGF: 76/1933

July 3:
KSGF: 77/2018


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Camden
LONG TERM...Camden
AVIATION...Hatch
CLIMATE...Camden