049
FXUS64 KSHV 051208
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
708 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday through Thursday)
Issued at 240 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

Warm and breezy this morning with gusty S/SE winds. On the flip
side, a line of thunderstorms is shifting the sfc winds across
I-30 right now back to NW with some healthy gusts. Mount Pleasant
peaked at nearly 50 mph recently and we have a couple of warnings
watching along that part of the line. Specials WX statements have
been holding, but the rains are bringing down stronger winds as
enhancements continue to unfold.

Most sites are fair with mid 60s in N LA and upper 60s in S AR
for the coolest ahead of the line, but the rain cooled air is
dropping temps some 5 to 10 degrees. Along and south of I-20 air
temps are mid to upper 70s in E TX. This last good MCS push is
going to take some time to clear all of our southern tier. No
changes at this time to the flood watch, but we can let it go
early if the system outpaces current guidance.

The GFS and ECMWF are very similar with a weak 1008mb high over E
OK this afternoon. The cool pool will advance into our area, but
skies should improve for a warmer afternoon north of I-20 and
maybe more. The NAM is a little deeper on the H500 trough, even
closing off at 577dam over Memphis later today and likewise
keeping convection going south of I-20 across the remainder of
our Four-State area late this afternoon and early this evening.
So some highs over the south may preceed the weather, while skies
have to thin for the sun later on today. Overnight looks cooler
with more patchy fog areawide toward daybreak with light NW winds
that will veer to N/NE and keep for a while with a larger airmass
dropping down our way to wrap up the work week. Low will vary from
N to S to start our Thursday and more sunshine will push the
mercury higher and higher in the coming days.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 240 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

The deep parent low remains in the Great Lakes and will be
lobbing down lowering heights aloft for us in a decent trough
again early next week. Until then, the Four-Corners upper ridge
will drift eastward over TX for this weekend. It is 592dam over AZ
this morning and will drift into E TX at 593dam, while the NE
winds on the sfc swing back to S/SE for the weekend. A hearty
warming trend for sure with heat index readings over the century
mark for us all weekend. We may just be under advisory criteria.

Then under that trough dropping down early next week, we will see
NE sfc winds return to greet the new work week. Slightly cooler
temps nestle back down the MS River Valley. This will likely drum
up next significant rainfall Monday and Tuesday. That air mass
will be 1015mb and keep up in the middle MS River Valley. Then a
decent H500 impulses proceeds another 1018mb high for the middle
of next week. So the lowering heights, added clouds and rain
around will bring back mid to upper 80s for next work week.
Meanwhile, the GFS shows a tropical look with an 584dam low
lifting over E TX on Wednesday. In fact the entire Gulf coast gets
an Easterlies look we really haven`t seen so far. So more rain
then too, but at least a few days of a warm to hot respite
unpacking later today and through the coming weekend. /24/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 703 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

For the 05/12Z TAF period, a complex of convection continues to
shift SE across our airspace early this morning and will impact
most of our terminals through midday. Additionally, low stratus
will result in MVFR cigs persisting across most terminals through
the remainder of this morning as the convection shifts farther SE
of the Interstate 20 corridor. Cigs will gradually improve later
this afternoon as convection largely exits the region with VFR
conditions likely returning for the afternoon and evening before
fog development becomes more likely overnight. Breezy S/SE winds
between 5-15 kts will become more variable (and briefly N/NW with
convection) with winds decoupling to near calm by around 06/00Z.

/19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  85  72  93  72 /  90  10   0   0
MLU  86  70  92  70 /  90  20  10   0
DEQ  86  62  92  67 /  50   0   0   0
TXK  85  65  92  70 /  70   0   0   0
ELD  83  66  90  68 /  80  10   0   0
TYR  86  70  92  71 /  50   0   0   0
GGG  85  69  92  71 /  60  10   0   0
LFK  89  71  94  70 /  80  10  10   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ077.

TX...Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ096-097-108>112-
     124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...19