881
FXUS64 KSHV 280303
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1003 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 956 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024

With convection to our west invof the DFW metroplex on the downward
trend over the past hour, will allow Severe T`Storm Watch 336 over
the handful of counties in East TX to expire on schedule at 10 PM.
Otherwise, still cannot completely rule out a stray shower or storm
along the weak frontal boundary slowly advancing south of I-20. In
terms of temperatures, the current forecast appears on track with
a range of overnight lows expected in the mid and upper 60s north
to lower and mid 70s south. Therefore, no additional changes are
needed at this time. Updated text products have already been sent.

/19/

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 234 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024

A short-wave trough and associated weak cool front will continue
to push across the region today. Despite that, temperatures will
still remain well above normal, with highs climbing into the lower
to mid 90s. However, the front could spark off a few isolated
showers and thunderstorms during the late afternoon and early
evening hours for our zones along and south of the Interstate
corridor. At this time, not expecting anything severe, but can`t
rule out some brief heavy downpours and strong gusty winds.

Behind this trough, the upper level pattern will transition to
more of a northwesterly flow tonight. There could be a few
isolated showers/t-storms that develop across North TX tonight
along the Red River that may try to sneak into McCurtain County
and extreme NE Texas during the late evening hours and just after
midnight along the flow, before diminishing. Northwesterly flow
should help bring in some slightly cooler temps and dewpoints to
the region, but it will also keep rain chances across the area.
Short-term progs continue to suggest a potent disturbance will
kick off some showers and thunderstorms near daybreak tomorrow
across the Red River valley of North TX and Southern OK. These
storms are expected to form into a complex and push south along
the NW Flow into the region during the late morning hours. Can`t
rule out some strong to severe winds with this complex, along with
some hail. Additional disturbances could move through the flow
Tuesday afternoon/evening, resulting in additional convection
across the region.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 234 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024

Long-term progs are suggesting an active NW Flow pattern to
continue through the remainder of the work week and through the
upcoming weekend, bringing more disturbances and unsettled
weather across the region. It will be a challenge to pinpoint the
timing on the activity, as it will depend on when each
disturbance moves through. Also, additional storms could develop
along residual boundaries with daytime heating. With periods of
rain, we will need to monitor area waterways for flooding. The
good news, is that the rain and cloud cover should keep temps near
or just below normal. However, there is some hint that upper
ridging could develop across the Southern Plains by next weekend,
which could result in drier weather and hot temps returning. /20/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 652 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024

For the ArkLaTex terminals, VFR overnight for most, but LIFR/IFR
conditions 09-15Z possible for TX sites. High pressure anchored in
Canada, extends down across the middle MS River Valley with NE
winds in AR/LA. This frontal boundary resides along I-49 with SE
winds over TX keeping the moisture pooled. The NE winds will back
to SE in some cases, but call the aftn variable at 6KT with Cu
field 3-5kft and scattered TS possible near the boundary. Heavy
down pours will gust the hot aftn wind, best coverage in TX. /24/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  92  71  81 /  20  30  30  50
MLU  70  93  69  80 /  10  20  10  40
DEQ  64  86  64  80 /  20  30  30  50
TXK  68  90  67  81 /  10  30  30  50
ELD  66  90  65  78 /  10  20  20  40
TYR  71  90  69  82 /  20  40  40  50
GGG  71  90  69  81 /  20  40  40  50
LFK  73  93  72  84 /  20  30  30  60

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...24